{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data/replication log.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}10 Dec 2024, 14:33:35

{com}. do "/var/folders/zj/d7ht3ynx0nz154r_tnlnx_yc0000gn/T//SD43972.000000"
{txt}
{com}. *******************************************************************************
. * Analysis for Love, Carlin, and Singer
. * Required packages: lassopack, spost13, cv_regress
. * Note: Graphs use schemepack styles
. *******************************************************************************/
. 
. 
. *set graph scheme
. set scheme s1color
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Set working directory and load data
. cd "/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"
{res}/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data
{txt}
{com}. 
. use "full data gov.dta", clear
{txt}(Governor Approval May 20, 2021: Quarterly)

{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * Initial Model Selection and Base Analysis
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. * LASSO model selection
. lasso2 vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 
{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm        EBIC{col 58}R-sq   {c |} Action
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 15}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}3295.79488{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.00000{col 43} 1567.43634{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}3003.00555{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.01575{col 43} 1558.35745{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0422{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   4{col 13}2493.14796{col 25}   3{col 31}   0.05530{col 43} 1537.36912{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1137{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  12{col 13}1184.44727{col 25}   4{col 31}   0.41763{col 43} 1467.58058{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2877{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  16{col 13} 816.39356{col 25}   5{col 31}   1.33077{col 43} 1453.77009{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3271{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  26{col 13} 322.00244{col 25}   6{col 31}   2.60478{col 43} 1436.03720{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3714{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  30{col 13} 221.94379{col 25}   7{col 31}   2.89067{col 43} 1438.74037{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3771{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  32{col 13} 184.26164{col 25}   8{col 31}   2.99989{col 43} 1443.57398{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3789{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  34{col 13} 152.97725{col 25}   9{col 31}   3.15148{col 43} 1448.46183{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3806{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  35{col 13} 139.38717{col 25}   8{col 31}   4.51168{col 43} 1439.27006{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3866{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    11{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  39{col 13}  96.07417{col 25}   9{col 31}   7.91951{col 43} 1437.91623{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3992{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    12{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  43{col 13}  66.22020{col 25}  10{col 31}  14.63370{col 43} 1432.84489{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4179{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
    13{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  44{col 13}  60.33738{col 25}  11{col 31}  17.03784{col 43} 1435.67496{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4229{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    14{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  52{col 13}  28.66514{col 25}  12{col 31}  33.98151{col 43} 1426.74081{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4471{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode.
{txt}Use {bf:long} option for full output.
{p 0 6 2}Type e.g. {stata lasso2, lic(ebic)}{txt} to run the model selected by EBIC.{txt}{p_end}

{com}. lasso2, lic(ebic)
{txt}
Use lambda=.3295794879861628 (selected by EBIC).

{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 32}
{col 10}Selected {c |}           Lasso   Post-est OLS
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1653524      0.1646413
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -12.1934471    -12.2657329
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -13.7010292    -13.8563734
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3772490      0.3786156
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3868247      0.3897305
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 6}2.gov_party {c |}{col 21}{res}     17.8687812     17.9081325
{txt}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1936990      0.1942206
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 8}gov_party#{c |}
{space 15}c. {c |}
dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.3590354     -0.3598216
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2360140     -0.2369409
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 21}{res}    -18.1050556    -18.1788117
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 2}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3255105      0.3271077
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{col 4}Partialled-out{help lasso2##examples_partialling:*}{c |}
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}     42.6544440     42.7078431
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 32}

{com}. 
. * Selected model regression (Table 1)
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 334)      = {res}    25.56
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14425.2525        11  1311.38659   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17136.5975       334  51.3071781   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4570
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4392
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1629

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1646413{col 36}{space 2} .0624089{col 47}{space 1}    2.64{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0418772{col 77}{space 3} .2874054
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.26573{col 36}{space 2} 4.428173{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-20.97636{col 77}{space 3} -3.55511
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.85637{col 36}{space 2} 9.947494{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.42401{col 77}{space 3} 5.711263
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3786156{col 36}{space 2} .0856011{col 47}{space 1}    4.42{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2102303{col 77}{space 3} .5470008
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3897305{col 36}{space 2} .1851283{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0255661{col 77}{space 3} .7538949
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.90813{col 36}{space 2}  4.45002{col 47}{space 1}    4.02{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.154533{col 77}{space 3} 26.66173
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1942206{col 36}{space 2}  .070322{col 47}{space 1}    2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0558907{col 77}{space 3} .3325505
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3598216{col 36}{space 2} .0888896{col 47}{space 1}   -4.05{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5346757{col 77}{space 3}-.1849676
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2369409{col 36}{space 2} .0852011{col 47}{space 1}   -2.78{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4045393{col 77}{space 3}-.0693424
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.17881{col 36}{space 2} 5.311509{col 47}{space 1}   -3.42{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.62704{col 77}{space 3}-7.730585
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3271077{col 36}{space 2}  .117081{col 47}{space 1}    2.79{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0967987{col 77}{space 3} .5574168
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.70784{col 36}{space 2} 7.166469{col 47}{space 1}    5.96{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.61074{col 77}{space 3} 56.80495
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}.         outreg2 using "table 1", noparen dec(3) label replace
{browse `"/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"' :dir} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "table 1.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. cv_regress
{txt}(6,687 missing values generated)
(6,687 missing values generated)


Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Results 
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 15}
         Method          {c |}{col 30} Value
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 15}
Root Mean Squared Errors {c |}{col 30}{res}    7.3074
{txt}Log Mean Squared Errors  {c |}{col 30}{res}    3.9778
{txt}Mean Absolute Errors     {c |}{col 30}{res}    5.5862
{txt}Pseudo-R2                {c |}{col 30}{res}   0.41561
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 15}

{com}. 
. * Null LOOV MAE
. reg vote_share 

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       438
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(0, 437)       = {res}     0.00
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}          0         0           .   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}         .
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 42551.1029       437  97.3709448   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.0000
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.0000
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 42551.1029       437  97.3709448   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.8677

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}  vote_share{col 14}{c |} Coefficient{col 26}  Std. err.{col 38}      t{col 46}   P>|t|{col 54}     [95% con{col 67}f. interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 52.72651{col 26}{space 2} .4714956{col 37}{space 1}  111.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 51.79983{col 67}{space 3} 53.65319
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. cv_regress
{txt}(6,595 missing values generated)
(6,595 missing values generated)


Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Results 
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 15}
         Method          {c |}{col 30} Value
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 15}
Root Mean Squared Errors {c |}{col 30}{res}    9.8790
{txt}Log Mean Squared Errors  {c |}{col 30}{res}    4.5808
{txt}Mean Absolute Errors     {c |}{col 30}{res}    7.6959
{txt}Pseudo-R2                {c |}{col 30}{res}   1.00000
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 15}

{com}. 
. * Winner prediction models
. lassologit winner l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 
{res}{txt}Obtaining solution for 50 lambdas
{hline 4}{c +}{hline 3} 1 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 2 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 3 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 4 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 5 
..................................................    50

{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm     EBIC{col 55}Pseudo-R2 {c |} Entered/removed
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 16}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}  63.56431{col 25}   0{col 31}   0.73644{col 43}  439.52194{txt} {res}{col 56}-0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}  57.86248{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.66521{col 43}  433.57604{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0207{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   8{col 13}  32.92297{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.22847{col 43}  404.73485{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0934{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  14{col 13}  18.73273{col 25}   5{col 31}   0.94323{col 43}  394.76555{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1375{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}3.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  18{col 13}  12.86281{col 25}   6{col 31}   1.72957{col 43}  384.68942{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1675{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  28{col 13}   5.02542{col 25}   8{col 31}   2.43899{col 43}  376.44056{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2005{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  36{col 13}   2.36942{col 25}   9{col 31}   4.08929{col 43}  372.86673{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2158{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  37{col 13}   2.15688{col 25}  10{col 31}   4.93764{col 43}  372.33712{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2241{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  46{col 13}   0.92572{col 25}  11{col 31}  10.03934{col 43}  354.94058{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2708{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  49{col 13}   0.69828{col 25}  12{col 31}  12.28572{col 43}  354.57206{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2788{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
{txt}Use 'long' option for full output. 
Type e.g. '{stata lassologit, lic(ebic)}' to run the model selected by EBIC.

{com}. logit winner l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 

{txt}note: {bf:3.gov_party} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:3.gov_party} omitted and 3 obs not used.

note: {bf:3.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party} omitted because of collinearity.
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-216.35067}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-162.88911}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-156.04714}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78596}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78531}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78531}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:346}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:11})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:121.13}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-155.78531}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.2799}

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                winner{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      z{col 56}   P>|z|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0437658{col 36}{space 2}  .020384{col 47}{space 1}    2.15{col 56}{space 3}0.032{col 64}{space 4} .0038139{col 77}{space 3} .0837176
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-3.081159{col 36}{space 2} 1.790465{col 47}{space 1}   -1.72{col 56}{space 3}0.085{col 64}{space 4}-6.590405{col 77}{space 3} .4280875
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .8823279{col 36}{space 2} 4.364133{col 47}{space 1}    0.20{col 56}{space 3}0.840{col 64}{space 4}-7.671216{col 77}{space 3} 9.435872
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0976519{col 36}{space 2} .0365078{col 47}{space 1}    2.67{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .0260979{col 77}{space 3} .1692059
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0198462{col 36}{space 2} .0876775{col 47}{space 1}    0.23{col 56}{space 3}0.821{col 64}{space 4}-.1519986{col 77}{space 3} .1916911
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 4.601556{col 36}{space 2} 1.631233{col 47}{space 1}    2.82{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} 1.404397{col 77}{space 3} 7.798714
{txt}{space 20}3  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (empty)
{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0705963{col 36}{space 2} .0264632{col 47}{space 1}    2.67{col 56}{space 3}0.008{col 64}{space 4} .0187294{col 77}{space 3} .1224633
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0962892{col 36}{space 2} .0324634{col 47}{space 1}   -2.97{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4}-.1599163{col 77}{space 3}-.0326621
{txt}{space 20}3  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (empty)
{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1707225{col 36}{space 2} .0429719{col 47}{space 1}   -3.97{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} -.254946{col 77}{space 3}-.0864991
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-9.146607{col 36}{space 2}  2.35503{col 47}{space 1}   -3.88{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-13.76238{col 77}{space 3}-4.530834
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1779892{col 36}{space 2} .0498209{col 47}{space 1}    3.57{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}  .080342{col 77}{space 3} .2756364
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 2.827323{col 36}{space 2} 2.930003{col 47}{space 1}    0.96{col 56}{space 3}0.335{col 64}{space 4}-2.915378{col 77}{space 3} 8.570024
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. * Winner forecast error analysis
. predict yhat_winner if winner != .
{txt}(option {bf:pr} assumed; Pr(winner))
(6,687 missing values generated)

{com}. gen yhat_winner_pr=yhat_winner
{txt}(6,687 missing values generated)

{com}. replace yhat_winner = 1 if yhat_winner > .5 & winner != .
{txt}(337 real changes made)

{com}. replace yhat_winner = 0 if yhat_winner < .5 & winner != .
{txt}(106 real changes made)

{com}. tab yhat_winner winner

           {txt}{c |}        winner
Pr(winner) {c |}         0          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res}        71         35 {txt}{c |}{res}       106 
{txt}         1 {c |}{res}        74        263 {txt}{c |}{res}       337 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}       145        298 {txt}{c |}{res}       443 
{txt}
{com}. display ((71 + 263) / 443) * 100
{res}75.395034
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Brier score
. brier winner yhat_winner_pr 

{txt}Mean probability of outcome  {res} 0.6821
{txt}                 of forecast {res} 0.6821

{txt}Correlation                  {res} 0.5608
{txt}ROC area                     {res} 0.8406{txt}  p ={res} 0.0000

{txt}Brier score                  {res} 0.1487
{txt}Spiegelhalter's z-statistic  {res}-0.0038{txt}  p ={res} 0.5015
{txt}Sanders-modified Brier score {res} 0.1482
{txt}Sanders resolution           {res} 0.1461
{txt}Outcome index variance       {res} 0.2168
{txt}Murphy resolution            {res} 0.0708
{txt}Reliability-in-the-small     {res} 0.0021
{txt}Forecast variance            {res} 0.0682
{txt}Excess forecast variance     {res} 0.0467
{txt}Minimum forecast variance    {res} 0.0214
{txt}Reliability-in-the-large     {res} 0.0000
{txt}2*Forecast-Outcome-Covar     {res} 0.1363
{txt}
{com}. 
. **LOO accuracy for winner
. 
. * Create storage for predicted probabilities
. gen loo_pred = .
{txt}(7,033 missing values generated)

{com}. gen loo_correct = .
{txt}(7,033 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Loop through observations where winner is not missing
. forvalues i = 1/`=_N' {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.     if winner[`i'] != . {c -(}
{txt}  3{com}.         quietly {c -(}
{txt}  4{com}.             * Fit model excluding observation i
.             logit winner l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>                 c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan if _n != `i' & winner != .
{txt}  5{com}.                 
.             * Predict probability for left-out observation
.             predict p if _n == `i'
{txt}  6{com}.             replace loo_pred = p if _n == `i'
{txt}  7{com}.             drop p
{txt}  8{com}.             
.             * Check if prediction was correct (using 0.5 threshold)
.             replace loo_correct = (loo_pred > 0.5 & winner == 1) | (loo_pred <= 0.5 & winner == 0) if _n == `i'
{txt}  9{com}.         {c )-}
{txt} 10{com}.         if mod(`i', 50) == 0 {c -(}
{txt} 11{com}.             display "Processed `i' observations"
{txt} 12{com}.         {c )-}
{txt} 13{com}.     {c )-}
{txt} 14{com}. {c )-}
Processed 1200 observations
Processed 3100 observations
Processed 3500 observations
Processed 3850 observations
Processed 4300 observations
Processed 5250 observations
Processed 6000 observations
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Calculate and display LOO accuracy
. sum loo_correct if winner != .

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 1}loo_correct {c |}{res}        443    .7291196    .4449169          0          1
{txt}
{com}. display "Leave-one-out accuracy rate: " r(mean) * 100 "%"
{res}Leave-one-out accuracy rate: 72.911964%
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Clean up
. drop loo_pred loo_correct
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * Before-the-fact Errors Analysis
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. * Generate predictions for full model for each year
. foreach l of num 1990/2019 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.     reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>         c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan if year < `l'
{txt}  3{com}.     predict yhat_vote_`l' if year == `l' & vote_share != .
{txt}  4{com}. {c )-}

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        23
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(9, 13)        = {res}     3.29
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1015.59788         9  112.844209   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0258
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 446.509137        13  34.3468567   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.6946
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4832
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 1462.10702        22    66.45941   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 5.8606

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0023426{col 36}{space 2} .2246194{col 47}{space 1}    0.01{col 56}{space 3}0.992{col 64}{space 4}-.4829181{col 77}{space 3} .4876032
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 10}1.Incumbcode {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 3.760864{col 36}{space 2} 16.02999{col 47}{space 1}    0.23{col 56}{space 3}0.818{col 64}{space 4}-30.86983{col 77}{space 3} 38.39156
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0952637{col 36}{space 2}  .299375{col 47}{space 1}    0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.755{col 64}{space 4}-.5514968{col 77}{space 3} .7420241
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 81.66814{col 36}{space 2} 26.99226{col 47}{space 1}    3.03{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4} 23.35492{col 77}{space 3} 139.9814
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5313825{col 36}{space 2} .3393657{col 47}{space 1}    1.57{col 56}{space 3}0.141{col 64}{space 4}-.2017726{col 77}{space 3} 1.264538
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-1.759501{col 36}{space 2} .6029467{col 47}{space 1}   -2.92{col 56}{space 3}0.012{col 64}{space 4}-3.062088{col 77}{space 3}-.4569134
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-1.012388{col 36}{space 2} .4033129{col 47}{space 1}   -2.51{col 56}{space 3}0.026{col 64}{space 4}-1.883693{col 77}{space 3}-.1410837
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-96.01262{col 36}{space 2} 35.94447{col 47}{space 1}   -2.67{col 56}{space 3}0.019{col 64}{space 4}-173.6659{col 77}{space 3}-18.35932
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 1.631059{col 36}{space 2} .6594779{col 47}{space 1}    2.47{col 56}{space 3}0.028{col 64}{space 4} .2063433{col 77}{space 3} 3.055774
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 82.02716{col 36}{space 2} 34.31101{col 47}{space 1}    2.39{col 56}{space 3}0.033{col 64}{space 4} 7.902723{col 77}{space 3} 156.1516
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,024 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        32
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(9, 22)        = {res}     2.32
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1390.55703         9  154.506337   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0519
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}   1465.341        22  66.6064091   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4869
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.2770
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 2855.89803        31  92.1257429   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.1613

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0707994{col 36}{space 2} .2683289{col 47}{space 1}   -0.26{col 56}{space 3}0.794{col 64}{space 4}-.6272794{col 77}{space 3} .4856807
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 10}1.Incumbcode {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-4.598161{col 36}{space 2} 16.65894{col 47}{space 1}   -0.28{col 56}{space 3}0.785{col 64}{space 4}-39.14669{col 77}{space 3} 29.95037
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .183612{col 36}{space 2} .3161909{col 47}{space 1}    0.58{col 56}{space 3}0.567{col 64}{space 4}-.4721277{col 77}{space 3} .8393518
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 13.27094{col 36}{space 2} 28.60539{col 47}{space 1}    0.46{col 56}{space 3}0.647{col 64}{space 4}-46.05301{col 77}{space 3}  72.5949
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1687425{col 36}{space 2}  .376543{col 47}{space 1}   -0.45{col 56}{space 3}0.658{col 64}{space 4}-.9496448{col 77}{space 3} .6121598
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3286554{col 36}{space 2} .6507527{col 47}{space 1}   -0.51{col 56}{space 3}0.619{col 64}{space 4}-1.678234{col 77}{space 3} 1.020923
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-1.035823{col 36}{space 2} .4198951{col 47}{space 1}   -2.47{col 56}{space 3}0.022{col 64}{space 4}-1.906632{col 77}{space 3}-.1650143
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  -59.398{col 36}{space 2} 34.10768{col 47}{space 1}   -1.74{col 56}{space 3}0.096{col 64}{space 4} -130.133{col 77}{space 3} 11.33699
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 1.161778{col 36}{space 2} .6231559{col 47}{space 1}    1.86{col 56}{space 3}0.076{col 64}{space 4}-.1305682{col 77}{space 3} 2.454124
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 112.3691{col 36}{space 2} 39.56933{col 47}{space 1}    2.84{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4} 30.30732{col 77}{space 3} 194.4309
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        34
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(9, 24)        = {res}     1.66
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  1165.9513         9  129.550145   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.1556
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 1877.92106        24  78.2467107   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.3830
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1517
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 3043.87236        33  92.2385563   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.8457

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.069598{col 36}{space 2} .2899564{col 47}{space 1}   -0.24{col 56}{space 3}0.812{col 64}{space 4}-.6680386{col 77}{space 3} .5288426
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 10}1.Incumbcode {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-7.155886{col 36}{space 2} 18.01417{col 47}{space 1}   -0.40{col 56}{space 3}0.695{col 64}{space 4} -44.3353{col 77}{space 3} 30.02353
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2117716{col 36}{space 2}  .342352{col 47}{space 1}    0.62{col 56}{space 3}0.542{col 64}{space 4}-.4948083{col 77}{space 3} .9183514
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 19.15434{col 36}{space 2} 30.87005{col 47}{space 1}    0.62{col 56}{space 3}0.541{col 64}{space 4} -44.5583{col 77}{space 3} 82.86699
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0532185{col 36}{space 2}  .403887{col 47}{space 1}   -0.13{col 56}{space 3}0.896{col 64}{space 4}-.8868002{col 77}{space 3} .7803632
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.4706017{col 36}{space 2} .7015577{col 47}{space 1}   -0.67{col 56}{space 3}0.509{col 64}{space 4}-1.918546{col 77}{space 3} .9773423
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.9319435{col 36}{space 2} .4404468{col 47}{space 1}   -2.12{col 56}{space 3}0.045{col 64}{space 4}-1.840981{col 77}{space 3}-.0229059
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-55.24463{col 36}{space 2} 36.61574{col 47}{space 1}   -1.51{col 56}{space 3}0.144{col 64}{space 4}-130.8158{col 77}{space 3} 20.32654
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 1.070567{col 36}{space 2} .6637205{col 47}{space 1}    1.61{col 56}{space 3}0.120{col 64}{space 4}-.2992845{col 77}{space 3} 2.440419
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 103.4837{col 36}{space 2} 42.06524{col 47}{space 1}    2.46{col 56}{space 3}0.021{col 64}{space 4} 16.66527{col 77}{space 3}  190.302
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,027 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        40
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(9, 30)        = {res}     2.17
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1359.05918         9  151.006576   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0536
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 2083.79839        30  69.4599462   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.3947
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.2132
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 3442.85757        39  88.2783991   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.3343

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0784358{col 36}{space 2} .2489989{col 47}{space 1}    0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.755{col 64}{space 4}-.4300877{col 77}{space 3} .5869594
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 10}1.Incumbcode {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-5.943605{col 36}{space 2} 16.32319{col 47}{space 1}   -0.36{col 56}{space 3}0.718{col 64}{space 4}-39.28001{col 77}{space 3}  27.3928
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1953999{col 36}{space 2} .3136849{col 47}{space 1}    0.62{col 56}{space 3}0.538{col 64}{space 4}-.4452301{col 77}{space 3} .8360299
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 3.089866{col 36}{space 2} 24.77495{col 47}{space 1}    0.12{col 56}{space 3}0.902{col 64}{space 4}-47.50733{col 77}{space 3} 53.68706
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0629575{col 36}{space 2} .3031023{col 47}{space 1}   -0.21{col 56}{space 3}0.837{col 64}{space 4}-.6819749{col 77}{space 3} .5560599
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0932137{col 36}{space 2} .5666452{col 47}{space 1}   -0.16{col 56}{space 3}0.870{col 64}{space 4}-1.250458{col 77}{space 3}  1.06403
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.6150449{col 36}{space 2} .3285369{col 47}{space 1}   -1.87{col 56}{space 3}0.071{col 64}{space 4}-1.286007{col 77}{space 3}  .055917
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-35.27846{col 36}{space 2} 29.54988{col 47}{space 1}   -1.19{col 56}{space 3}0.242{col 64}{space 4}-95.62737{col 77}{space 3} 25.07044
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .6919894{col 36}{space 2} .5386659{col 47}{space 1}    1.28{col 56}{space 3}0.209{col 64}{space 4}-.4081131{col 77}{space 3} 1.792092
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 79.92188{col 36}{space 2} 35.18404{col 47}{space 1}    2.27{col 56}{space 3}0.030{col 64}{space 4} 8.066474{col 77}{space 3} 151.7773
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        42
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(9, 32)        = {res}     2.46
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1467.27879         9  163.030977   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0293
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 2118.66696        32  66.2083425   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4092
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.2430
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 3585.94575        41  87.4620916   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.1369

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .091581{col 36}{space 2} .2398748{col 47}{space 1}    0.38{col 56}{space 3}0.705{col 64}{space 4}-.3970279{col 77}{space 3} .5801899
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 10}1.Incumbcode {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -3.28577{col 36}{space 2} 15.50332{col 47}{space 1}   -0.21{col 56}{space 3}0.833{col 64}{space 4}  -34.865{col 77}{space 3} 28.29347
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1556631{col 36}{space 2} .3013188{col 47}{space 1}    0.52{col 56}{space 3}0.609{col 64}{space 4}-.4581032{col 77}{space 3} .7694294
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 3.132287{col 36}{space 2} 24.14285{col 47}{space 1}    0.13{col 56}{space 3}0.898{col 64}{space 4}-46.04509{col 77}{space 3} 52.30966
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0650251{col 36}{space 2}  .295877{col 47}{space 1}   -0.22{col 56}{space 3}0.827{col 64}{space 4}-.6677068{col 77}{space 3} .5376565
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0441557{col 36}{space 2} .5333264{col 47}{space 1}   -0.08{col 56}{space 3}0.935{col 64}{space 4}-1.130506{col 77}{space 3} 1.042195
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.5997755{col 36}{space 2} .3199801{col 47}{space 1}   -1.87{col 56}{space 3}0.070{col 64}{space 4}-1.251554{col 77}{space 3} .0520025
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-38.90822{col 36}{space 2} 19.70587{col 47}{space 1}   -1.97{col 56}{space 3}0.057{col 64}{space 4}-79.04776{col 77}{space 3} 1.231319
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .7176107{col 36}{space 2} .4068057{col 47}{space 1}    1.76{col 56}{space 3}0.087{col 64}{space 4}-.1110254{col 77}{space 3} 1.546247
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 78.42766{col 36}{space 2} 34.22136{col 47}{space 1}    2.29{col 56}{space 3}0.029{col 64}{space 4} 8.721037{col 77}{space 3} 148.1343
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,004 missing values generated)
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        71
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(10, 60)       = {res}     5.69
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 3548.65001        10  354.865001   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 3744.50287        60  62.4083812   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4866
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4010
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 7293.15288        70  104.187898   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.8999

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1137538{col 36}{space 2} .1536295{col 47}{space 1}    0.74{col 56}{space 3}0.462{col 64}{space 4}-.1935508{col 77}{space 3} .4210585
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-14.20619{col 36}{space 2}  10.0788{col 47}{space 1}   -1.41{col 56}{space 3}0.164{col 64}{space 4} -34.3668{col 77}{space 3} 5.954411
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 13.22009{col 36}{space 2} 8.707544{col 47}{space 1}    1.52{col 56}{space 3}0.134{col 64}{space 4}-4.197592{col 77}{space 3} 30.63777
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4229309{col 36}{space 2} .2018901{col 47}{space 1}    2.09{col 56}{space 3}0.040{col 64}{space 4} .0190905{col 77}{space 3} .8267713
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 4.085962{col 36}{space 2} 17.40482{col 47}{space 1}    0.23{col 56}{space 3}0.815{col 64}{space 4}-30.72886{col 77}{space 3} 38.90079
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0486895{col 36}{space 2} .1976352{col 47}{space 1}    0.25{col 56}{space 3}0.806{col 64}{space 4}-.3466398{col 77}{space 3} .4440188
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0543355{col 36}{space 2} .3553234{col 47}{space 1}   -0.15{col 56}{space 3}0.879{col 64}{space 4} -.765088{col 77}{space 3} .6564171
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.363624{col 36}{space 2} .2396915{col 47}{space 1}   -1.52{col 56}{space 3}0.135{col 64}{space 4}-.8430785{col 77}{space 3} .1158304
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-24.10788{col 36}{space 2} 15.38254{col 47}{space 1}   -1.57{col 56}{space 3}0.122{col 64}{space 4}-54.87755{col 77}{space 3} 6.661786
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4058093{col 36}{space 2} .3345158{col 47}{space 1}    1.21{col 56}{space 3}0.230{col 64}{space 4}-.2633219{col 77}{space 3} 1.074941
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 59.31302{col 36}{space 2} 21.89936{col 47}{space 1}    2.71{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} 15.50779{col 77}{space 3} 103.1183
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        73
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(10, 62)       = {res}     5.58
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 3462.30692        10  346.230692   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 3844.42518        62  62.0068578   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4739
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.3890
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 7306.73211        72   101.48239   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.8744

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1138666{col 36}{space 2} .1531338{col 47}{space 1}    0.74{col 56}{space 3}0.460{col 64}{space 4}-.1922434{col 77}{space 3} .4199767
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.92956{col 36}{space 2} 9.990659{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.168{col 64}{space 4}-33.90061{col 77}{space 3} 6.041481
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 12.74457{col 36}{space 2} 8.661752{col 47}{space 1}    1.47{col 56}{space 3}0.146{col 64}{space 4}-4.570031{col 77}{space 3} 30.05916
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4091625{col 36}{space 2} .1999579{col 47}{space 1}    2.05{col 56}{space 3}0.045{col 64}{space 4} .0094524{col 77}{space 3} .8088726
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.319536{col 36}{space 2} 16.86108{col 47}{space 1}   -0.02{col 56}{space 3}0.985{col 64}{space 4}-34.02435{col 77}{space 3} 33.38528
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0343295{col 36}{space 2} .1958747{col 47}{space 1}    0.18{col 56}{space 3}0.861{col 64}{space 4}-.3572185{col 77}{space 3} .4258775
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0273164{col 36}{space 2}   .34573{col 47}{space 1}    0.08{col 56}{space 3}0.937{col 64}{space 4}-.6637881{col 77}{space 3} .7184209
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3828132{col 36}{space 2} .2383408{col 47}{space 1}   -1.61{col 56}{space 3}0.113{col 64}{space 4}-.8592497{col 77}{space 3} .0936233
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-25.12305{col 36}{space 2} 15.23761{col 47}{space 1}   -1.65{col 56}{space 3}0.104{col 64}{space 4} -55.5826{col 77}{space 3} 5.336504
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4426535{col 36}{space 2} .3303692{col 47}{space 1}    1.34{col 56}{space 3}0.185{col 64}{space 4}-.2177452{col 77}{space 3} 1.103052
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 60.91068{col 36}{space 2} 21.76884{col 47}{space 1}    2.80{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} 17.39537{col 77}{space 3}  104.426
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,024 missing values generated)
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        82
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(10, 71)       = {res}     7.71
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4731.10038        10  473.110038   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 4359.51143        71  61.4015695   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.5204
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4529
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 9090.61181        81  112.229775   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.8359

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1130851{col 36}{space 2} .1375635{col 47}{space 1}    0.82{col 56}{space 3}0.414{col 64}{space 4}-.1612086{col 77}{space 3} .3873789
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.44417{col 36}{space 2} 9.232739{col 47}{space 1}   -2.21{col 56}{space 3}0.030{col 64}{space 4}-38.85373{col 77}{space 3}-2.034613
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 10.68382{col 36}{space 2} 8.390106{col 47}{space 1}    1.27{col 56}{space 3}0.207{col 64}{space 4}-6.045573{col 77}{space 3} 27.41322
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5577561{col 36}{space 2} .1806849{col 47}{space 1}    3.09{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4} .1974807{col 77}{space 3} .9180315
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 7.841899{col 36}{space 2} 15.34426{col 47}{space 1}    0.51{col 56}{space 3}0.611{col 64}{space 4}-22.75368{col 77}{space 3} 38.43748
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1562423{col 36}{space 2} .1718658{col 47}{space 1}    0.91{col 56}{space 3}0.366{col 64}{space 4}-.1864483{col 77}{space 3} .4989329
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1616644{col 36}{space 2} .3161328{col 47}{space 1}   -0.51{col 56}{space 3}0.611{col 64}{space 4}-.7920153{col 77}{space 3} .4686864
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2772288{col 36}{space 2} .2154306{col 47}{space 1}   -1.29{col 56}{space 3}0.202{col 64}{space 4}-.7067852{col 77}{space 3} .1523275
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-17.62649{col 36}{space 2} 13.91878{col 47}{space 1}   -1.27{col 56}{space 3}0.210{col 64}{space 4}-45.37974{col 77}{space 3} 10.12676
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2945765{col 36}{space 2} .3003472{col 47}{space 1}    0.98{col 56}{space 3}0.330{col 64}{space 4}-.3042989{col 77}{space 3} .8934519
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 50.00604{col 36}{space 2} 18.84047{col 47}{space 1}    2.65{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4} 12.43922{col 77}{space 3} 87.57287
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        84
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(10, 73)       = {res}     7.67
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4679.56809        10  467.956809   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 4453.00122        73  61.0000167   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.5124
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4456
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 9132.56931        83  110.030956   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.8103

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1318614{col 36}{space 2} .1352694{col 47}{space 1}    0.97{col 56}{space 3}0.333{col 64}{space 4}-.1377302{col 77}{space 3} .4014529
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.12329{col 36}{space 2} 9.135926{col 47}{space 1}   -2.20{col 56}{space 3}0.031{col 64}{space 4}-38.33116{col 77}{space 3}-1.915418
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 10.24647{col 36}{space 2} 8.350121{col 47}{space 1}    1.23{col 56}{space 3}0.224{col 64}{space 4}-6.395301{col 77}{space 3} 26.88823
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5453181{col 36}{space 2}  .178159{col 47}{space 1}    3.06{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4} .1902477{col 77}{space 3} .9003885
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 12.12589{col 36}{space 2} 14.89725{col 47}{space 1}    0.81{col 56}{space 3}0.418{col 64}{space 4}-17.56429{col 77}{space 3} 41.81607
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1738968{col 36}{space 2} .1698949{col 47}{space 1}    1.02{col 56}{space 3}0.309{col 64}{space 4}-.1647034{col 77}{space 3} .5124969
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2509265{col 36}{space 2}  .306598{col 47}{space 1}   -0.82{col 56}{space 3}0.416{col 64}{space 4}-.8619755{col 77}{space 3} .3601225
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2588516{col 36}{space 2} .2128925{col 47}{space 1}   -1.22{col 56}{space 3}0.228{col 64}{space 4}-.6831457{col 77}{space 3} .1654425
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-16.57985{col 36}{space 2} 13.81395{col 47}{space 1}   -1.20{col 56}{space 3}0.234{col 64}{space 4}-44.11101{col 77}{space 3} 10.95132
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2678305{col 36}{space 2} .2974432{col 47}{space 1}    0.90{col 56}{space 3}0.371{col 64}{space 4}-.3249729{col 77}{space 3}  .860634
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 47.62492{col 36}{space 2} 18.51071{col 47}{space 1}    2.57{col 56}{space 3}0.012{col 64}{space 4} 10.73314{col 77}{space 3} 84.51671
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,002 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       115
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 103)      = {res}     9.01
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  5781.9197        11  525.629063   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 6005.80839       103  58.3088193   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4905
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4361
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 11787.7281       114  103.401124   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}  7.636

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1495715{col 36}{space 2} .1186516{col 47}{space 1}    1.26{col 56}{space 3}0.210{col 64}{space 4}-.0857461{col 77}{space 3}  .384889
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-14.57488{col 36}{space 2} 8.163505{col 47}{space 1}   -1.79{col 56}{space 3}0.077{col 64}{space 4}-30.76527{col 77}{space 3} 1.615505
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-11.70814{col 36}{space 2} 66.69886{col 47}{space 1}   -0.18{col 56}{space 3}0.861{col 64}{space 4}-143.9896{col 77}{space 3} 120.5733
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4497682{col 36}{space 2} .1576301{col 47}{space 1}    2.85{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}  .137146{col 77}{space 3} .7623904
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3646229{col 36}{space 2} 1.150217{col 47}{space 1}    0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.752{col 64}{space 4}-1.916561{col 77}{space 3} 2.645807
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.45238{col 36}{space 2} 11.29002{col 47}{space 1}    1.55{col 56}{space 3}0.125{col 64}{space 4} -4.93871{col 77}{space 3} 39.84346
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1919909{col 36}{space 2} .1464431{col 47}{space 1}    1.31{col 56}{space 3}0.193{col 64}{space 4}-.0984444{col 77}{space 3} .4824263
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3792442{col 36}{space 2}  .232565{col 47}{space 1}   -1.63{col 56}{space 3}0.106{col 64}{space 4}-.8404821{col 77}{space 3} .0819937
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2506904{col 36}{space 2} .1656167{col 47}{space 1}   -1.51{col 56}{space 3}0.133{col 64}{space 4}-.5791521{col 77}{space 3} .0777712
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-16.05253{col 36}{space 2} 11.68362{col 47}{space 1}   -1.37{col 56}{space 3}0.172{col 64}{space 4}-39.22424{col 77}{space 3}  7.11918
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2563037{col 36}{space 2} .2475413{col 47}{space 1}    1.04{col 56}{space 3}0.303{col 64}{space 4} -.234636{col 77}{space 3} .7472435
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 45.35418{col 36}{space 2} 14.68707{col 47}{space 1}    3.09{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4} 16.22584{col 77}{space 3} 74.48253
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       117
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 105)      = {res}     9.23
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5833.23768        11  530.294334   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 6032.84956       105  57.4557101   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4916
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4383
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 11866.0872       116  102.293855   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}   7.58

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1510581{col 36}{space 2} .1176422{col 47}{space 1}    1.28{col 56}{space 3}0.202{col 64}{space 4}-.0822047{col 77}{space 3} .3843208
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-14.45374{col 36}{space 2} 8.096354{col 47}{space 1}   -1.79{col 56}{space 3}0.077{col 64}{space 4}-30.50732{col 77}{space 3}  1.59983
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-11.76598{col 36}{space 2} 66.20719{col 47}{space 1}   -0.18{col 56}{space 3}0.859{col 64}{space 4}-143.0426{col 77}{space 3} 119.5106
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4492967{col 36}{space 2} .1561881{col 47}{space 1}    2.88{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} .1396046{col 77}{space 3} .7589889
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3659539{col 36}{space 2} 1.141703{col 47}{space 1}    0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.749{col 64}{space 4}-1.897832{col 77}{space 3}  2.62974
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.24676{col 36}{space 2}  11.0867{col 47}{space 1}    1.56{col 56}{space 3}0.123{col 64}{space 4}-4.736108{col 77}{space 3} 39.22963
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1941231{col 36}{space 2} .1449241{col 47}{space 1}    1.34{col 56}{space 3}0.183{col 64}{space 4}-.0932345{col 77}{space 3} .4814808
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3772659{col 36}{space 2} .2288687{col 47}{space 1}   -1.65{col 56}{space 3}0.102{col 64}{space 4}-.8310703{col 77}{space 3} .0765385
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2484796{col 36}{space 2} .1636166{col 47}{space 1}   -1.52{col 56}{space 3}0.132{col 64}{space 4}-.5729011{col 77}{space 3} .0759419
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-16.35176{col 36}{space 2} 11.57152{col 47}{space 1}   -1.41{col 56}{space 3}0.161{col 64}{space 4}-39.29595{col 77}{space 3}  6.59244
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2647297{col 36}{space 2} .2447462{col 47}{space 1}    1.08{col 56}{space 3}0.282{col 64}{space 4}-.2205569{col 77}{space 3} .7500163
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 45.06704{col 36}{space 2}  14.5135{col 47}{space 1}    3.11{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} 16.28946{col 77}{space 3} 73.84462
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,024 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       126
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 114)      = {res}     8.36
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5368.73715        11  488.067014   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 6658.05846       114  58.4040216   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4464
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.3930
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 12026.7956       125  96.2143649   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.6423

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1523056{col 36}{space 2} .1087407{col 47}{space 1}    1.40{col 56}{space 3}0.164{col 64}{space 4}-.0631089{col 77}{space 3} .3677201
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.15677{col 36}{space 2} 7.789498{col 47}{space 1}   -1.69{col 56}{space 3}0.094{col 64}{space 4} -28.5877{col 77}{space 3}  2.27417
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.86177{col 36}{space 2} 66.70855{col 47}{space 1}   -0.19{col 56}{space 3}0.847{col 64}{space 4}-145.0109{col 77}{space 3} 119.2874
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4074013{col 36}{space 2} .1482624{col 47}{space 1}    2.75{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .1136947{col 77}{space 3} .7011079
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3679846{col 36}{space 2} 1.150066{col 47}{space 1}    0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.750{col 64}{space 4}-1.910287{col 77}{space 3} 2.646256
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 9.086786{col 36}{space 2} 9.920702{col 47}{space 1}    0.92{col 56}{space 3}0.362{col 64}{space 4}-10.56605{col 77}{space 3} 28.73962
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1833989{col 36}{space 2} .1403146{col 47}{space 1}    1.31{col 56}{space 3}0.194{col 64}{space 4}-.0945632{col 77}{space 3}  .461361
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2195551{col 36}{space 2} .2068484{col 47}{space 1}   -1.06{col 56}{space 3}0.291{col 64}{space 4}-.6293201{col 77}{space 3} .1902099
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2886524{col 36}{space 2} .1597204{col 47}{space 1}   -1.81{col 56}{space 3}0.073{col 64}{space 4}-.6050573{col 77}{space 3} .0277524
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -21.2683{col 36}{space 2}  11.1589{col 47}{space 1}   -1.91{col 56}{space 3}0.059{col 64}{space 4}  -43.374{col 77}{space 3} .8373951
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .387287{col 36}{space 2} .2340326{col 47}{space 1}    1.65{col 56}{space 3}0.101{col 64}{space 4}-.0763297{col 77}{space 3} .8509037
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 47.51152{col 36}{space 2} 13.65996{col 47}{space 1}    3.48{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4} 20.45124{col 77}{space 3}  74.5718
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       128
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 116)      = {res}     8.76
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5532.93526        11  502.994114   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 6662.16085       116  57.4324211   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4537
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4019
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 12195.0961       127  96.0243787   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.5784

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1571778{col 36}{space 2} .1062568{col 47}{space 1}    1.48{col 56}{space 3}0.142{col 64}{space 4}-.0532773{col 77}{space 3} .3676329
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.81723{col 36}{space 2} 7.614514{col 47}{space 1}   -1.68{col 56}{space 3}0.095{col 64}{space 4}-27.89874{col 77}{space 3} 2.264276
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.58561{col 36}{space 2} 66.14318{col 47}{space 1}   -0.19{col 56}{space 3}0.849{col 64}{space 4}-143.5905{col 77}{space 3} 118.4193
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4017306{col 36}{space 2} .1454798{col 47}{space 1}    2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .1135895{col 77}{space 3} .6898717
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3640229{col 36}{space 2} 1.140363{col 47}{space 1}    0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.750{col 64}{space 4} -1.89461{col 77}{space 3} 2.622656
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 9.543855{col 36}{space 2} 9.687659{col 47}{space 1}    0.99{col 56}{space 3}0.327{col 64}{space 4}-9.643775{col 77}{space 3} 28.73148
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1871331{col 36}{space 2} .1384295{col 47}{space 1}    1.35{col 56}{space 3}0.179{col 64}{space 4}-.0870439{col 77}{space 3} .4613101
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2304658{col 36}{space 2} .2010069{col 47}{space 1}   -1.15{col 56}{space 3}0.254{col 64}{space 4}-.6285853{col 77}{space 3} .1676536
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2837665{col 36}{space 2} .1572237{col 47}{space 1}   -1.80{col 56}{space 3}0.074{col 64}{space 4}-.5951678{col 77}{space 3} .0276347
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-21.01005{col 36}{space 2} 10.87794{col 47}{space 1}   -1.93{col 56}{space 3}0.056{col 64}{space 4}-42.55517{col 77}{space 3} .5350736
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3800662{col 36}{space 2} .2266401{col 47}{space 1}    1.68{col 56}{space 3}0.096{col 64}{space 4} -.068823{col 77}{space 3} .8289554
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 46.88463{col 36}{space 2} 13.33267{col 47}{space 1}    3.52{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4} 20.47759{col 77}{space 3} 73.29167
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,003 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       158
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 146)      = {res}    10.08
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6106.32418        11   555.12038   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8040.63659       146  55.0728534   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4316
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.3888
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14146.9608       157  90.1080304   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.4211

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1436897{col 36}{space 2} .0997349{col 47}{space 1}    1.44{col 56}{space 3}0.152{col 64}{space 4} -.053421{col 77}{space 3} .3408004
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-11.48146{col 36}{space 2} 7.026539{col 47}{space 1}   -1.63{col 56}{space 3}0.104{col 64}{space 4}-25.36833{col 77}{space 3} 2.405414
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.4794183{col 36}{space 2} 22.88743{col 47}{space 1}   -0.02{col 56}{space 3}0.983{col 64}{space 4}-45.71288{col 77}{space 3} 44.75405
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3788068{col 36}{space 2} .1343296{col 47}{space 1}    2.82{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} .1133252{col 77}{space 3} .6442885
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1422608{col 36}{space 2} .4286442{col 47}{space 1}    0.33{col 56}{space 3}0.740{col 64}{space 4}-.7048882{col 77}{space 3} .9894098
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 10.23697{col 36}{space 2} 8.016242{col 47}{space 1}    1.28{col 56}{space 3}0.204{col 64}{space 4}-5.605892{col 77}{space 3} 26.07984
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1714578{col 36}{space 2} .1223675{col 47}{space 1}    1.40{col 56}{space 3}0.163{col 64}{space 4}-.0703826{col 77}{space 3} .4132982
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2166221{col 36}{space 2} .1644367{col 47}{space 1}   -1.32{col 56}{space 3}0.190{col 64}{space 4}-.5416058{col 77}{space 3} .1083615
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3331944{col 36}{space 2} .1394049{col 47}{space 1}   -2.39{col 56}{space 3}0.018{col 64}{space 4}-.6087067{col 77}{space 3}-.0576822
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.17178{col 36}{space 2} 9.440413{col 47}{space 1}   -1.92{col 56}{space 3}0.056{col 64}{space 4} -36.8293{col 77}{space 3} .4857394
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3406449{col 36}{space 2} .1911891{col 47}{space 1}    1.78{col 56}{space 3}0.077{col 64}{space 4}-.0372108{col 77}{space 3} .7185006
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 49.22674{col 36}{space 2} 11.74912{col 47}{space 1}    4.19{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 26.00642{col 77}{space 3} 72.44707
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       160
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 148)      = {res}     9.97
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6064.48351        11  551.316683   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8181.39472       148   55.279694   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4257
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.3830
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14245.8782       159  89.5967184   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}  7.435

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1472854{col 36}{space 2} .0987179{col 47}{space 1}    1.49{col 56}{space 3}0.138{col 64}{space 4}-.0477933{col 77}{space 3} .3423641
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-11.41971{col 36}{space 2} 7.004123{col 47}{space 1}   -1.63{col 56}{space 3}0.105{col 64}{space 4}-25.26072{col 77}{space 3} 2.421294
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.5151689{col 36}{space 2} 22.91465{col 47}{space 1}   -0.02{col 56}{space 3}0.982{col 64}{space 4}-45.79733{col 77}{space 3} 44.76699
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3749273{col 36}{space 2} .1340292{col 47}{space 1}    2.80{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .1100692{col 77}{space 3} .6397853
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1409643{col 36}{space 2} .4291598{col 47}{space 1}    0.33{col 56}{space 3}0.743{col 64}{space 4}-.7071081{col 77}{space 3} .9890366
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 11.13629{col 36}{space 2}  8.00491{col 47}{space 1}    1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.166{col 64}{space 4}-4.682392{col 77}{space 3} 26.95498
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1873567{col 36}{space 2} .1218705{col 47}{space 1}    1.54{col 56}{space 3}0.126{col 64}{space 4}-.0534743{col 77}{space 3} .4281877
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2312624{col 36}{space 2} .1644061{col 47}{space 1}   -1.41{col 56}{space 3}0.162{col 64}{space 4} -.556149{col 77}{space 3} .0936243
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3235533{col 36}{space 2}    .1395{col 47}{space 1}   -2.32{col 56}{space 3}0.022{col 64}{space 4}-.5992224{col 77}{space 3}-.0478842
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-17.39298{col 36}{space 2} 9.429006{col 47}{space 1}   -1.84{col 56}{space 3}0.067{col 64}{space 4}-36.02585{col 77}{space 3} 1.239889
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3271689{col 36}{space 2} .1911511{col 47}{space 1}    1.71{col 56}{space 3}0.089{col 64}{space 4}-.0505691{col 77}{space 3} .7049068
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}   47.644{col 36}{space 2} 11.62531{col 47}{space 1}    4.10{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 24.67096{col 77}{space 3} 70.61703
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,024 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       169
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 157)      = {res}     9.80
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  5922.0387        11  538.367154   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8620.64494       157  54.9085665   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4072
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.3657
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14542.6836       168  86.5635931   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}   7.41

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1478567{col 36}{space 2} .0966212{col 47}{space 1}    1.53{col 56}{space 3}0.128{col 64}{space 4}-.0429884{col 77}{space 3} .3387019
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-10.95509{col 36}{space 2} 6.888884{col 47}{space 1}   -1.59{col 56}{space 3}0.114{col 64}{space 4}-24.56194{col 77}{space 3} 2.651762
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-7.059009{col 36}{space 2} 22.04186{col 47}{space 1}   -0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.749{col 64}{space 4}-50.59586{col 77}{space 3} 36.47784
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3574963{col 36}{space 2} .1316915{col 47}{space 1}    2.71{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .0973807{col 77}{space 3}  .617612
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2435152{col 36}{space 2} .4181268{col 47}{space 1}    0.58{col 56}{space 3}0.561{col 64}{space 4}-.5823644{col 77}{space 3} 1.069395
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 11.98374{col 36}{space 2} 7.660186{col 47}{space 1}    1.56{col 56}{space 3}0.120{col 64}{space 4}-3.146578{col 77}{space 3} 27.11405
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1803883{col 36}{space 2}  .118809{col 47}{space 1}    1.52{col 56}{space 3}0.131{col 64}{space 4} -.054282{col 77}{space 3} .4150586
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2503212{col 36}{space 2} .1572361{col 47}{space 1}   -1.59{col 56}{space 3}0.113{col 64}{space 4}-.5608921{col 77}{space 3} .0602498
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3468121{col 36}{space 2}  .136052{col 47}{space 1}   -2.55{col 56}{space 3}0.012{col 64}{space 4}-.6155405{col 77}{space 3}-.0780836
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.69557{col 36}{space 2} 9.104658{col 47}{space 1}   -2.27{col 56}{space 3}0.024{col 64}{space 4}  -38.679{col 77}{space 3}-2.712153
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3915248{col 36}{space 2} .1855091{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0251093{col 77}{space 3} .7579403
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 49.49806{col 36}{space 2} 11.28672{col 47}{space 1}    4.39{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 27.20466{col 77}{space 3} 71.79145
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       171
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 159)      = {res}     9.92
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5920.41312        11  538.219374   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8622.93635       159  54.2323041   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4071
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.3661
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14543.3495       170  85.5491145   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.3643

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1489949{col 36}{space 2} .0957077{col 47}{space 1}    1.56{col 56}{space 3}0.122{col 64}{space 4}-.0400275{col 77}{space 3} .3380173
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -10.9196{col 36}{space 2} 6.834625{col 47}{space 1}   -1.60{col 56}{space 3}0.112{col 64}{space 4}-24.41795{col 77}{space 3} 2.578763
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-6.980043{col 36}{space 2} 21.90161{col 47}{space 1}   -0.32{col 56}{space 3}0.750{col 64}{space 4}-50.23564{col 77}{space 3} 36.27555
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3562438{col 36}{space 2} .1306401{col 47}{space 1}    2.73{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .0982301{col 77}{space 3} .6142574
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2415422{col 36}{space 2} .4154279{col 47}{space 1}    0.58{col 56}{space 3}0.562{col 64}{space 4}-.5789264{col 77}{space 3} 1.062011
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 11.98424{col 36}{space 2}  7.60365{col 47}{space 1}    1.58{col 56}{space 3}0.117{col 64}{space 4}-3.032942{col 77}{space 3} 27.00142
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1810057{col 36}{space 2} .1176678{col 47}{space 1}    1.54{col 56}{space 3}0.126{col 64}{space 4}-.0513878{col 77}{space 3} .4133991
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  -.25083{col 36}{space 2} .1559713{col 47}{space 1}   -1.61{col 56}{space 3}0.110{col 64}{space 4}-.5588727{col 77}{space 3} .0572126
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3493951{col 36}{space 2}  .132962{col 47}{space 1}   -2.63{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4}-.6119945{col 77}{space 3}-.0867958
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.88213{col 36}{space 2} 8.890525{col 47}{space 1}   -2.35{col 56}{space 3}0.020{col 64}{space 4}-38.44089{col 77}{space 3}-3.323382
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3948245{col 36}{space 2} .1817009{col 47}{space 1}    2.17{col 56}{space 3}0.031{col 64}{space 4} .0359659{col 77}{space 3} .7536831
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 49.58764{col 36}{space 2} 11.16019{col 47}{space 1}    4.44{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 27.54631{col 77}{space 3} 71.62897
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       203
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 191)      = {res}    13.80
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 8295.67374        11  754.152158   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  10434.562       191  54.6312148   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4429
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4108
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 18730.2358       202  92.7239395   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.3913

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1583503{col 36}{space 2} .0900563{col 47}{space 1}    1.76{col 56}{space 3}0.080{col 64}{space 4}-.0192824{col 77}{space 3} .3359829
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-11.82628{col 36}{space 2} 6.386291{col 47}{space 1}   -1.85{col 56}{space 3}0.066{col 64}{space 4}-24.42299{col 77}{space 3} .7704417
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.92995{col 36}{space 2} 14.70713{col 47}{space 1}   -1.42{col 56}{space 3}0.156{col 64}{space 4} -49.9392{col 77}{space 3} 8.079299
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3796266{col 36}{space 2} .1216648{col 47}{space 1}    3.12{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .1396474{col 77}{space 3} .6196058
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5320852{col 36}{space 2} .2590546{col 47}{space 1}    2.05{col 56}{space 3}0.041{col 64}{space 4} .0211098{col 77}{space 3} 1.043061
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 9.189937{col 36}{space 2}  6.52644{col 47}{space 1}    1.41{col 56}{space 3}0.161{col 64}{space 4}-3.683217{col 77}{space 3} 22.06309
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1162555{col 36}{space 2} .1081714{col 47}{space 1}    1.07{col 56}{space 3}0.284{col 64}{space 4}-.0971084{col 77}{space 3} .3296195
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2065199{col 36}{space 2} .1326929{col 47}{space 1}   -1.56{col 56}{space 3}0.121{col 64}{space 4}-.4682517{col 77}{space 3} .0552118
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.234702{col 36}{space 2} .1113544{col 47}{space 1}   -2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4}-.4543443{col 77}{space 3}-.0150598
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.32568{col 36}{space 2} 7.083474{col 47}{space 1}   -2.59{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4}-32.29756{col 77}{space 3}-4.353794
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3419057{col 36}{space 2} .1486531{col 47}{space 1}    2.30{col 56}{space 3}0.023{col 64}{space 4}  .048693{col 77}{space 3} .6351183
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 46.53752{col 36}{space 2} 10.07011{col 47}{space 1}    4.62{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 26.67462{col 77}{space 3} 66.40042
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       205
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 193)      = {res}    14.05
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 8399.00036        11  763.545487   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 10487.8597       193  54.3412418   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4447
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4131
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   18886.86       204  92.5826472   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.3717

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .159637{col 36}{space 2} .0898028{col 47}{space 1}    1.78{col 56}{space 3}0.077{col 64}{space 4} -.017484{col 77}{space 3}  .336758
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.11756{col 36}{space 2} 6.305897{col 47}{space 1}   -1.92{col 56}{space 3}0.056{col 64}{space 4}-24.55488{col 77}{space 3} .3197623
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-21.26858{col 36}{space 2} 14.66387{col 47}{space 1}   -1.45{col 56}{space 3}0.149{col 64}{space 4}-50.19059{col 77}{space 3} 7.653433
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .382893{col 36}{space 2} .1201596{col 47}{space 1}    3.19{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .1458985{col 77}{space 3} .6198876
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5382969{col 36}{space 2} .2582861{col 47}{space 1}    2.08{col 56}{space 3}0.038{col 64}{space 4}  .028871{col 77}{space 3} 1.047723
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 8.758701{col 36}{space 2} 6.492214{col 47}{space 1}    1.35{col 56}{space 3}0.179{col 64}{space 4}-4.046098{col 77}{space 3}  21.5635
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}   .12056{col 36}{space 2} .1077353{col 47}{space 1}    1.12{col 56}{space 3}0.265{col 64}{space 4}-.0919299{col 77}{space 3} .3330498
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2002417{col 36}{space 2} .1321396{col 47}{space 1}   -1.52{col 56}{space 3}0.131{col 64}{space 4}-.4608648{col 77}{space 3} .0603813
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2367515{col 36}{space 2} .1110323{col 47}{space 1}   -2.13{col 56}{space 3}0.034{col 64}{space 4}-.4557441{col 77}{space 3} -.017759
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-19.21045{col 36}{space 2} 7.006838{col 47}{space 1}   -2.74{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4}-33.03026{col 77}{space 3}-5.390643
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3592417{col 36}{space 2} .1472142{col 47}{space 1}    2.44{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4} .0688864{col 77}{space 3} .6495969
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 46.46975{col 36}{space 2} 10.03823{col 47}{space 1}    4.63{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 26.67104{col 77}{space 3} 66.26847
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,024 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       214
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 202)      = {res}    16.05
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  9657.1666        11  877.924237   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 11049.1013       202  54.6985215   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4664
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4373
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 20706.2679       213  97.2125255   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.3958

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1619342{col 36}{space 2} .0899468{col 47}{space 1}    1.80{col 56}{space 3}0.073{col 64}{space 4}-.0154208{col 77}{space 3} .3392893
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.23449{col 36}{space 2}  6.23308{col 47}{space 1}   -2.12{col 56}{space 3}0.035{col 64}{space 4}-25.52474{col 77}{space 3}-.9442466
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-21.08325{col 36}{space 2}  14.7099{col 47}{space 1}   -1.43{col 56}{space 3}0.153{col 64}{space 4} -50.0879{col 77}{space 3} 7.921408
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4056674{col 36}{space 2} .1185966{col 47}{space 1}    3.42{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4} .1718212{col 77}{space 3} .6395135
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .533668{col 36}{space 2} .2590385{col 47}{space 1}    2.06{col 56}{space 3}0.041{col 64}{space 4} .0229017{col 77}{space 3} 1.044434
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 9.853749{col 36}{space 2} 6.400874{col 47}{space 1}    1.54{col 56}{space 3}0.125{col 64}{space 4}-2.767351{col 77}{space 3} 22.47485
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1337626{col 36}{space 2} .1050424{col 47}{space 1}    1.27{col 56}{space 3}0.204{col 64}{space 4}-.0733577{col 77}{space 3} .3408829
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2232197{col 36}{space 2} .1299287{col 47}{space 1}   -1.72{col 56}{space 3}0.087{col 64}{space 4}-.4794102{col 77}{space 3} .0329709
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2724406{col 36}{space 2} .1055755{col 47}{space 1}   -2.58{col 56}{space 3}0.011{col 64}{space 4} -.480612{col 77}{space 3}-.0642692
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.81838{col 36}{space 2} 6.759419{col 47}{space 1}   -3.08{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4}-34.14645{col 77}{space 3}-7.490315
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3924925{col 36}{space 2} .1428957{col 47}{space 1}    2.75{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .1107341{col 77}{space 3}  .674251
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 47.54962{col 36}{space 2} 9.989471{col 47}{space 1}    4.76{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}  27.8526{col 77}{space 3} 67.24663
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       216
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 204)      = {res}    16.38
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 9805.31156        11   891.39196   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 11101.9134       204  54.4211439   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4690
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4404
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 20907.2249       215  97.2429066   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.3771

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1584925{col 36}{space 2} .0896502{col 47}{space 1}    1.77{col 56}{space 3}0.079{col 64}{space 4}-.0182673{col 77}{space 3} .3352522
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.58029{col 36}{space 2} 6.144815{col 47}{space 1}   -2.21{col 56}{space 3}0.028{col 64}{space 4}-25.69578{col 77}{space 3}-1.464795
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-21.00874{col 36}{space 2} 14.67111{col 47}{space 1}   -1.43{col 56}{space 3}0.154{col 64}{space 4}-49.93519{col 77}{space 3} 7.917711
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4129761{col 36}{space 2} .1171438{col 47}{space 1}    3.53{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4} .1820082{col 77}{space 3}  .643944
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5334276{col 36}{space 2} .2583453{col 47}{space 1}    2.06{col 56}{space 3}0.040{col 64}{space 4} .0240582{col 77}{space 3} 1.042797
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  9.57827{col 36}{space 2} 6.371532{col 47}{space 1}    1.50{col 56}{space 3}0.134{col 64}{space 4}-2.984231{col 77}{space 3} 22.14077
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1242139{col 36}{space 2} .1041634{col 47}{space 1}    1.19{col 56}{space 3}0.234{col 64}{space 4} -.081161{col 77}{space 3} .3295888
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2150488{col 36}{space 2} .1291399{col 47}{space 1}   -1.67{col 56}{space 3}0.097{col 64}{space 4}-.4696688{col 77}{space 3} .0395713
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2759765{col 36}{space 2} .1051799{col 47}{space 1}   -2.62{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4}-.4833557{col 77}{space 3}-.0685973
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.63675{col 36}{space 2} 6.732073{col 47}{space 1}   -3.07{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4}-33.91011{col 77}{space 3}-7.363383
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3869217{col 36}{space 2} .1422453{col 47}{space 1}    2.72{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .1064621{col 77}{space 3} .6673813
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 48.26575{col 36}{space 2} 9.926718{col 47}{space 1}    4.86{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.69363{col 77}{space 3} 67.83787
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,000 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       249
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 237)      = {res}    20.02
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 12353.2953        11  1123.02684   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 13297.3676       237  56.1070363   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4816
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4575
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 25650.6629       248  103.430092   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.4905

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1033894{col 36}{space 2} .0792882{col 47}{space 1}    1.30{col 56}{space 3}0.194{col 64}{space 4}-.0528103{col 77}{space 3} .2595892
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-16.14679{col 36}{space 2} 5.648947{col 47}{space 1}   -2.86{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}-27.27535{col 77}{space 3}-5.018225
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.46555{col 36}{space 2} 11.74293{col 47}{space 1}   -1.74{col 56}{space 3}0.083{col 64}{space 4}-43.59941{col 77}{space 3} 2.668309
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4741843{col 36}{space 2} .1079141{col 47}{space 1}    4.39{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2615909{col 77}{space 3} .6867777
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .531326{col 36}{space 2} .2132707{col 47}{space 1}    2.49{col 56}{space 3}0.013{col 64}{space 4} .1111776{col 77}{space 3} .9514744
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 14.56549{col 36}{space 2} 5.884246{col 47}{space 1}    2.48{col 56}{space 3}0.014{col 64}{space 4} 2.973386{col 77}{space 3}  26.1576
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1794624{col 36}{space 2} .0930661{col 47}{space 1}    1.93{col 56}{space 3}0.055{col 64}{space 4}-.0038801{col 77}{space 3} .3628049
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3071138{col 36}{space 2} .1180386{col 47}{space 1}   -2.60{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4}-.5396526{col 77}{space 3}-.0745749
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  -.24677{col 36}{space 2} .1012973{col 47}{space 1}   -2.44{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4} -.446328{col 77}{space 3}-.0472119
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-23.61787{col 36}{space 2} 6.321168{col 47}{space 1}   -3.74{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-36.07072{col 77}{space 3}-11.16502
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4364135{col 36}{space 2} .1360498{col 47}{space 1}    3.21{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .1683921{col 77}{space 3} .7044348
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 46.49915{col 36}{space 2} 9.114279{col 47}{space 1}    5.10{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}  28.5438{col 77}{space 3}  64.4545
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       252
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 240)      = {res}    20.26
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 12485.1285        11  1135.01168   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 13445.3796       240  56.0224149   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4815
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4577
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 25930.5081       251  103.308797   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.4848

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1117909{col 36}{space 2} .0786809{col 47}{space 1}    1.42{col 56}{space 3}0.157{col 64}{space 4}-.0432025{col 77}{space 3} .2667842
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-15.50187{col 36}{space 2} 5.625506{col 47}{space 1}   -2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-26.58354{col 77}{space 3}-4.420198
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-19.94341{col 36}{space 2} 11.72659{col 47}{space 1}   -1.70{col 56}{space 3}0.090{col 64}{space 4}-43.04358{col 77}{space 3} 3.156767
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4615462{col 36}{space 2}  .107297{col 47}{space 1}    4.30{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2501821{col 77}{space 3} .6729103
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5185548{col 36}{space 2} .2128634{col 47}{space 1}    2.44{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4} .0992357{col 77}{space 3} .9378738
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 15.23032{col 36}{space 2} 5.827765{col 47}{space 1}    2.61{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4} 3.750217{col 77}{space 3} 26.71042
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1793083{col 36}{space 2} .0925868{col 47}{space 1}    1.94{col 56}{space 3}0.054{col 64}{space 4}-.0030781{col 77}{space 3} .3616947
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3181529{col 36}{space 2} .1171347{col 47}{space 1}   -2.72{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4}-.5488962{col 77}{space 3}-.0874095
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2516887{col 36}{space 2} .1007861{col 47}{space 1}   -2.50{col 56}{space 3}0.013{col 64}{space 4}-.4502271{col 77}{space 3}-.0531503
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-23.49739{col 36}{space 2} 6.273959{col 47}{space 1}   -3.75{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-35.85645{col 77}{space 3}-11.13834
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .430949{col 36}{space 2} .1352053{col 47}{space 1}    3.19{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .1646084{col 77}{space 3} .6972896
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 46.41464{col 36}{space 2} 9.092598{col 47}{space 1}    5.10{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.50316{col 77}{space 3} 64.32613
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       262
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 250)      = {res}    21.61
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  12977.949        11  1179.81354   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 13651.3384       250  54.6053537   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4874
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4648
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 26629.2874       261  102.027921   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.3895

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1266835{col 36}{space 2} .0766256{col 47}{space 1}    1.65{col 56}{space 3}0.100{col 64}{space 4}-.0242306{col 77}{space 3} .2775976
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-15.16932{col 36}{space 2} 5.484694{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-25.97142{col 77}{space 3}-4.367225
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  -19.399{col 36}{space 2} 11.56369{col 47}{space 1}   -1.68{col 56}{space 3}0.095{col 64}{space 4}-42.17366{col 77}{space 3} 3.375669
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .453841{col 36}{space 2} .1045317{col 47}{space 1}    4.34{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}  .247966{col 77}{space 3} .6597159
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5065813{col 36}{space 2} .2098898{col 47}{space 1}    2.41{col 56}{space 3}0.017{col 64}{space 4} .0932038{col 77}{space 3} .9199589
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 14.92639{col 36}{space 2} 5.534436{col 47}{space 1}    2.70{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} 4.026327{col 77}{space 3} 25.82645
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1899122{col 36}{space 2} .0866029{col 47}{space 1}    2.19{col 56}{space 3}0.029{col 64}{space 4}  .019348{col 77}{space 3} .3604764
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3164198{col 36}{space 2}  .111146{col 47}{space 1}   -2.85{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}-.5353215{col 77}{space 3} -.097518
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2431916{col 36}{space 2} .0987975{col 47}{space 1}   -2.46{col 56}{space 3}0.015{col 64}{space 4}-.4377732{col 77}{space 3}  -.04861
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-22.26458{col 36}{space 2} 6.132715{col 47}{space 1}   -3.63{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-34.34295{col 77}{space 3} -10.1862
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4089194{col 36}{space 2} .1324024{col 47}{space 1}    3.09{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4}  .148153{col 77}{space 3} .6696858
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 44.82706{col 36}{space 2} 8.682501{col 47}{space 1}    5.16{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 27.72689{col 77}{space 3} 61.92724
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       264
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 252)      = {res}    21.88
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 13063.2876        11   1187.5716   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  13680.017       252  54.2857817   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4885
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4661
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 26743.3046       263  101.685569   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.3679

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1278362{col 36}{space 2} .0763308{col 47}{space 1}    1.67{col 56}{space 3}0.095{col 64}{space 4}-.0224914{col 77}{space 3} .2781639
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-15.02753{col 36}{space 2} 5.464194{col 47}{space 1}   -2.75{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-25.78884{col 77}{space 3}-4.266226
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-19.32348{col 36}{space 2} 11.52827{col 47}{space 1}   -1.68{col 56}{space 3}0.095{col 64}{space 4} -42.0275{col 77}{space 3} 3.380543
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .452131{col 36}{space 2} .1041913{col 47}{space 1}    4.34{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2469343{col 77}{space 3} .6573277
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .5052853{col 36}{space 2} .2092619{col 47}{space 1}    2.41{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4} .0931603{col 77}{space 3} .9174104
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 14.82186{col 36}{space 2}  5.51586{col 47}{space 1}    2.69{col 56}{space 3}0.008{col 64}{space 4}   3.9588{col 77}{space 3} 25.68492
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .190525{col 36}{space 2} .0863361{col 47}{space 1}    2.21{col 56}{space 3}0.028{col 64}{space 4} .0204929{col 77}{space 3} .3605572
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3138661{col 36}{space 2} .1107644{col 47}{space 1}   -2.83{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}-.5320079{col 77}{space 3}-.0957243
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2424774{col 36}{space 2} .0984785{col 47}{space 1}   -2.46{col 56}{space 3}0.014{col 64}{space 4}-.4364232{col 77}{space 3}-.0485316
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -22.2397{col 36}{space 2} 6.114447{col 47}{space 1}   -3.64{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-34.28163{col 77}{space 3}-10.19777
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4080669{col 36}{space 2} .1319778{col 47}{space 1}    3.09{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .1481469{col 77}{space 3} .6679868
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 44.68707{col 36}{space 2} 8.654781{col 47}{space 1}    5.16{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 27.64215{col 77}{space 3} 61.73199
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,000 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       297
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 285)      = {res}    24.26
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 13757.2742        11  1250.66129   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 14690.7996       285  51.5466651   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4836
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4637
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 28448.0737       296  96.1083573   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1796

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1324988{col 36}{space 2} .0715252{col 47}{space 1}    1.85{col 56}{space 3}0.065{col 64}{space 4}-.0082858{col 77}{space 3} .2732835
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-16.77602{col 36}{space 2} 5.058657{col 47}{space 1}   -3.32{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-26.73308{col 77}{space 3}-6.818946
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-19.08244{col 36}{space 2} 11.18461{col 47}{space 1}   -1.71{col 56}{space 3}0.089{col 64}{space 4}-41.09736{col 77}{space 3} 2.932486
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4762786{col 36}{space 2} .0969276{col 47}{space 1}    4.91{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2854937{col 77}{space 3} .6670635
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .499623{col 36}{space 2} .2029397{col 47}{space 1}    2.46{col 56}{space 3}0.014{col 64}{space 4} .1001722{col 77}{space 3} .8990737
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 13.80411{col 36}{space 2} 5.046481{col 47}{space 1}    2.74{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} 3.871005{col 77}{space 3} 23.73721
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1787834{col 36}{space 2} .0772306{col 47}{space 1}    2.31{col 56}{space 3}0.021{col 64}{space 4} .0267687{col 77}{space 3} .3307981
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2918322{col 36}{space 2} .1009344{col 47}{space 1}   -2.89{col 56}{space 3}0.004{col 64}{space 4}-.4905037{col 77}{space 3}-.0931607
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2146223{col 36}{space 2} .0902845{col 47}{space 1}   -2.38{col 56}{space 3}0.018{col 64}{space 4}-.3923313{col 77}{space 3}-.0369133
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-21.30324{col 36}{space 2} 5.669939{col 47}{space 1}   -3.76{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} -32.4635{col 77}{space 3}-10.14297
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3885332{col 36}{space 2} .1235556{col 47}{space 1}    3.14{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .1453358{col 77}{space 3} .6317306
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 43.74585{col 36}{space 2} 7.887069{col 47}{space 1}    5.55{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.22155{col 77}{space 3} 59.27015
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       300
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 288)      = {res}    24.99
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14060.2974        11  1278.20886   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 14729.1601       288   51.142917   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4884
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4688
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 28789.4575       299  96.2858112   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1514

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .136183{col 36}{space 2} .0700692{col 47}{space 1}    1.94{col 56}{space 3}0.053{col 64}{space 4}-.0017296{col 77}{space 3} .2740956
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-16.66984{col 36}{space 2} 5.005563{col 47}{space 1}   -3.33{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-26.52196{col 77}{space 3}-6.817711
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.86716{col 36}{space 2} 11.12416{col 47}{space 1}   -1.70{col 56}{space 3}0.091{col 64}{space 4}-40.76212{col 77}{space 3} 3.027796
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4747342{col 36}{space 2} .0959786{col 47}{space 1}    4.95{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2858256{col 77}{space 3} .6636427
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4954035{col 36}{space 2} .2018545{col 47}{space 1}    2.45{col 56}{space 3}0.015{col 64}{space 4} .0981063{col 77}{space 3} .8927006
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 13.71058{col 36}{space 2} 4.992755{col 47}{space 1}    2.75{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} 3.883661{col 77}{space 3} 23.53749
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .177578{col 36}{space 2}  .076404{col 47}{space 1}    2.32{col 56}{space 3}0.021{col 64}{space 4}  .027197{col 77}{space 3}  .327959
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2898873{col 36}{space 2}  .099984{col 47}{space 1}   -2.90{col 56}{space 3}0.004{col 64}{space 4}-.4866793{col 77}{space 3}-.0930952
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2175838{col 36}{space 2}  .089785{col 47}{space 1}   -2.42{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4}-.3943018{col 77}{space 3}-.0408658
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-21.28031{col 36}{space 2} 5.634082{col 47}{space 1}   -3.78{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-32.36951{col 77}{space 3}-10.19112
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3882595{col 36}{space 2} .1228017{col 47}{space 1}    3.16{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .1465568{col 77}{space 3} .6299622
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 43.74787{col 36}{space 2} 7.803807{col 47}{space 1}    5.61{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.38814{col 77}{space 3}  59.1076
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       310
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 298)      = {res}    24.83
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14216.6467        11  1292.42243   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 15509.3472       298  52.0447894   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4783
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4590
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}  29725.994       309  96.2006278   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.2142

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1668514{col 36}{space 2} .0686164{col 47}{space 1}    2.43{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4} .0318172{col 77}{space 3} .3018855
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-15.14124{col 36}{space 2} 4.975169{col 47}{space 1}   -3.04{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4}-24.93215{col 77}{space 3}-5.350318
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-17.44913{col 36}{space 2} 11.19814{col 47}{space 1}   -1.56{col 56}{space 3}0.120{col 64}{space 4}-39.48658{col 77}{space 3} 4.588319
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4352121{col 36}{space 2} .0951481{col 47}{space 1}    4.57{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2479648{col 77}{space 3} .6224593
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4597487{col 36}{space 2}  .203017{col 47}{space 1}    2.26{col 56}{space 3}0.024{col 64}{space 4} .0602202{col 77}{space 3} .8592772
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 15.16437{col 36}{space 2} 4.833204{col 47}{space 1}    3.14{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} 5.652833{col 77}{space 3}  24.6759
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1787258{col 36}{space 2} .0735008{col 47}{space 1}    2.43{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4} .0340793{col 77}{space 3} .3233722
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3191991{col 36}{space 2} .0970238{col 47}{space 1}   -3.29{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-.5101376{col 77}{space 3}-.1282606
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2169541{col 36}{space 2} .0896547{col 47}{space 1}   -2.42{col 56}{space 3}0.016{col 64}{space 4}-.3933906{col 77}{space 3}-.0405176
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.53865{col 36}{space 2}  5.65365{col 47}{space 1}   -3.63{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-31.66479{col 77}{space 3}-9.412513
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3699995{col 36}{space 2} .1231718{col 47}{space 1}    3.00{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4} .1276028{col 77}{space 3} .6123962
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  42.5371{col 36}{space 2} 7.570936{col 47}{space 1}    5.62{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 27.63783{col 77}{space 3} 57.43637
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,032 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       311
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 299)      = {res}    25.06
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14312.1306        11  1301.10278   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 15525.1498       299  51.9235778   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4797
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4605
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 29837.2803       310  96.2492915   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.2058

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .157668{col 36}{space 2} .0664842{col 47}{space 1}    2.37{col 56}{space 3}0.018{col 64}{space 4} .0268318{col 77}{space 3} .2885043
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-15.62872{col 36}{space 2} 4.890175{col 47}{space 1}   -3.20{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4}-25.25224{col 77}{space 3}-6.005202
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-17.84881{col 36}{space 2}  11.1616{col 47}{space 1}   -1.60{col 56}{space 3}0.111{col 64}{space 4}-39.81406{col 77}{space 3}  4.11643
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4444816{col 36}{space 2}   .09354{col 47}{space 1}    4.75{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2604014{col 77}{space 3} .6285618
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .467106{col 36}{space 2} .2023414{col 47}{space 1}    2.31{col 56}{space 3}0.022{col 64}{space 4} .0689124{col 77}{space 3} .8652996
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 15.05213{col 36}{space 2} 4.823284{col 47}{space 1}    3.12{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} 5.560248{col 77}{space 3} 24.54401
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1764955{col 36}{space 2} .0733038{col 47}{space 1}    2.41{col 56}{space 3}0.017{col 64}{space 4} .0322388{col 77}{space 3} .3207521
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3158329{col 36}{space 2} .0967184{col 47}{space 1}   -3.27{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4} -.506168{col 77}{space 3}-.1254979
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.218902{col 36}{space 2} .0894806{col 47}{space 1}   -2.45{col 56}{space 3}0.015{col 64}{space 4}-.3949935{col 77}{space 3}-.0428105
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-20.31501{col 36}{space 2} 5.632494{col 47}{space 1}   -3.61{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-31.39937{col 77}{space 3}-9.230663
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3658237{col 36}{space 2} .1227952{col 47}{space 1}    2.98{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4} .1241714{col 77}{space 3}  .607476
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 43.17798{col 36}{space 2} 7.472351{col 47}{space 1}    5.78{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.47292{col 77}{space 3} 57.88304
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       343
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 331)      = {res}    25.36
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14428.8984        11  1311.71804   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17117.2712       331  51.7138103   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4574
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4394
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 31546.1696       342  92.2402621   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1912

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1647612{col 36}{space 2} .0626915{col 47}{space 1}    2.63{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0414372{col 77}{space 3} .2880852
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.37363{col 36}{space 2} 4.481508{col 47}{space 1}   -2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-21.18946{col 77}{space 3}-3.557799
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.83516{col 36}{space 2} 9.987076{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.167{col 64}{space 4} -33.4813{col 77}{space 3} 5.810984
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3809223{col 36}{space 2} .0864662{col 47}{space 1}    4.41{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2108298{col 77}{space 3} .5510148
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3900599{col 36}{space 2} .1858681{col 47}{space 1}    2.10{col 56}{space 3}0.037{col 64}{space 4} .0244282{col 77}{space 3} .7556916
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.73679{col 36}{space 2} 4.485976{col 47}{space 1}    3.95{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 8.912168{col 77}{space 3} 26.56141
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1945669{col 36}{space 2} .0708674{col 47}{space 1}    2.75{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0551595{col 77}{space 3} .3339742
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3571268{col 36}{space 2} .0894812{col 47}{space 1}   -3.99{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5331504{col 77}{space 3}-.1811032
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2374767{col 36}{space 2} .0857113{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4060844{col 77}{space 3}-.0688691
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.32927{col 36}{space 2} 5.341618{col 47}{space 1}   -3.43{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.83707{col 77}{space 3}-7.821467
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3298407{col 36}{space 2} .1177203{col 47}{space 1}    2.80{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} .0982664{col 77}{space 3}  .561415
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.72024{col 36}{space 2} 7.196848{col 47}{space 1}    5.94{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.56291{col 77}{space 3} 56.87757
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

{com}. egen yhat_vote = rowtotal(yhat_vote_1990-yhat_vote_2019), missing
{txt}(6,710 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Generate predictions for simple model for each year
. foreach l of num 1990/2019 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.     reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed if year < `l'
{txt}  3{com}.     predict yhat_vote_simple_`l' if year == `l' & vote_share != .
{txt}  4{com}. {c )-}

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        57
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 55)        = {res}     2.71
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 206.140793         1  206.140793   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.1052
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 4177.42553        55  75.9531914   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.0470
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.0297
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 4383.56632        56    78.27797   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.7151

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .2212443{col 31}{space 2}  .134296{col 42}{space 1}    1.65{col 51}{space 3}0.105{col 59}{space 4}-.0478909{col 72}{space 3} .4903796
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 42.93396{col 31}{space 2}  6.94587{col 42}{space 1}    6.18{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 29.01413{col 72}{space 3}  56.8538
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        89
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 87)        = {res}    11.66
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1001.94232         1  1001.94232   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0010
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  7473.6172        87   85.903646   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1182
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1081
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 8475.55953        88  96.3131764   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2684

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3506184{col 31}{space 2} .1026642{col 42}{space 1}    3.42{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4} .1465621{col 72}{space 3} .5546746
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 35.40737{col 31}{space 2} 5.274125{col 42}{space 1}    6.71{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.92447{col 72}{space 3} 45.89026
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        91
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 89)        = {res}    10.68
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 925.841361         1  925.841361   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0015
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  7714.0683        89  86.6749248   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1072
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.0971
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 8639.90966        90  95.9989963   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3099

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3357466{col 31}{space 2} .1027283{col 42}{space 1}    3.27{col 51}{space 3}0.002{col 59}{space 4} .1316277{col 72}{space 3} .5398656
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 36.23163{col 31}{space 2} 5.274082{col 42}{space 1}    6.87{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 25.75214{col 72}{space 3} 46.71112
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,024 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       100
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 98)        = {res}    13.24
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1141.21318         1  1141.21318   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0004
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8450.13165        98  86.2258331   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1190
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1100
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 9591.34482        99   96.882271   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2858

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3675944{col 31}{space 2} .1010425{col 42}{space 1}    3.64{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .1670788{col 72}{space 3}   .56811
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 34.84714{col 31}{space 2} 5.193249{col 42}{space 1}    6.71{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.54131{col 72}{space 3} 45.15298
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       102
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 100)       = {res}    14.07
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1205.00235         1  1205.00235   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0003
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8566.65576       100  85.6665576   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1233
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1145
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 9771.65811       101  96.7490902   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2556

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3754879{col 31}{space 2}  .100117{col 42}{space 1}    3.75{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .1768587{col 72}{space 3} .5741171
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 34.32546{col 31}{space 2} 5.131722{col 42}{space 1}    6.69{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.14427{col 72}{space 3} 44.50665
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       134
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 132)       = {res}    22.64
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2144.33156         1  2144.33156   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 12504.1134       132  94.7281316   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1464
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1399
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14648.4449       133  110.138684   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.7328

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4157288{col 31}{space 2} .0873783{col 42}{space 1}    4.76{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2428859{col 72}{space 3} .5885718
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.08975{col 31}{space 2} 4.463133{col 42}{space 1}    7.19{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.26123{col 72}{space 3} 40.91827
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       136
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 134)       = {res}    23.09
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  2154.7226         1   2154.7226   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 12504.9515       134  93.3205338   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1470
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1406
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14659.6741       135  108.590179   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.6603

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4150158{col 31}{space 2} .0863689{col 42}{space 1}    4.81{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2441931{col 72}{space 3} .5858385
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.12088{col 31}{space 2} 4.412932{col 42}{space 1}    7.28{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.39287{col 72}{space 3} 40.84889
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       146
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 144)       = {res}    30.22
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2891.00332         1  2891.00332   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 13776.8044       144  95.6722526   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1734
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1677
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 16667.8077       145  114.950398   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.7812

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4511268{col 31}{space 2} .0820668{col 42}{space 1}    5.50{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2889157{col 72}{space 3} .6133379
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.56315{col 31}{space 2} 4.240854{col 42}{space 1}    7.21{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 22.18078{col 72}{space 3} 38.94551
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       148
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 146)       = {res}    30.86
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2916.68888         1  2916.68888   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 13796.8303       146   94.498838   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1745
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1689
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 16713.5192       147   113.69741   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.7211

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4521649{col 31}{space 2} .0813889{col 42}{space 1}    5.56{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2913124{col 72}{space 3} .6130175
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.47629{col 31}{space 2} 4.206384{col 42}{space 1}    7.25{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 22.16303{col 72}{space 3} 38.78956
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,000 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       181
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 179)       = {res}    34.69
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 3159.31653         1  3159.31653   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16301.4379       179  91.0694856   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1623
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1577
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19460.7544       180  108.115302   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}  9.543

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4394487{col 31}{space 2} .0746102{col 42}{space 1}    5.89{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}   .29222{col 72}{space 3} .5866773
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.99676{col 31}{space 2}  3.90227{col 42}{space 1}    7.94{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.29639{col 72}{space 3} 38.69713
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       183
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 181)       = {res}    34.89
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 3157.37872         1  3157.37872   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  16379.782       181   90.496033   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1616
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1570
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19537.1607       182  107.347037   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.5129

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .439313{col 31}{space 2} .0743747{col 42}{space 1}    5.91{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2925599{col 72}{space 3}  .586066
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 31.01505{col 31}{space 2} 3.889195{col 42}{space 1}    7.97{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.34106{col 72}{space 3} 38.68904
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       193
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 191)       = {res}    32.81
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2889.65529         1  2889.65529   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16820.3553       191  88.0646872   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1466
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1421
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19710.0105       192  102.656305   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3843

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4076814{col 31}{space 2} .0711703{col 42}{space 1}    5.73{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2673007{col 72}{space 3} .5480621
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.44643{col 31}{space 2}  3.74881{col 42}{space 1}    8.66{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 25.05205{col 72}{space 3} 39.84082
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       195
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 193)       = {res}    34.26
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2998.56813         1  2998.56813   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16893.7264       193  87.5322611   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1507
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1463
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19892.2945       194  102.537601   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3559

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4130385{col 31}{space 2} .0705696{col 42}{space 1}    5.85{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2738518{col 72}{space 3} .5522251
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.10665{col 31}{space 2} 3.711769{col 42}{space 1}    8.65{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.78581{col 72}{space 3} 39.42749
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       227
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 225)       = {res}    32.86
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2810.84673         1  2810.84673   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 19247.6721       225  85.5452095   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1274
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1235
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 22058.5189       226  97.6040658   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2491

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3838344{col 31}{space 2} .0669612{col 42}{space 1}    5.73{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2518831{col 72}{space 3} .5157857
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 33.09349{col 31}{space 2} 3.522003{col 42}{space 1}    9.40{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.15316{col 72}{space 3} 40.03383
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       229
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 227)       = {res}    33.44
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2847.25535         1  2847.25535   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 19325.1482       227  85.1328113   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1284
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1246
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 22172.4035       228  97.2473839   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2267

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3847175{col 31}{space 2} .0665238{col 42}{space 1}    5.78{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2536343{col 72}{space 3} .5158006
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.99772{col 31}{space 2} 3.496237{col 42}{space 1}    9.44{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  26.1085{col 72}{space 3} 39.88695
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       239
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 237)       = {res}    34.18
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2837.54397         1  2837.54397   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  19674.728       237  83.0157299   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1260
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1224
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}  22512.272       238   94.589378   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1113

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3801286{col 31}{space 2} .0650189{col 42}{space 1}    5.85{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2520399{col 72}{space 3} .5082174
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 33.20106{col 31}{space 2}  3.41788{col 42}{space 1}    9.71{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.46775{col 72}{space 3} 39.93436
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       241
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 239)       = {res}    34.33
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2827.44135         1  2827.44135   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 19686.1803       239  82.3689552   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1256
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1219
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 22513.6216       240  93.8067569   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0757

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3790006{col 31}{space 2} .0646882{col 42}{space 1}    5.86{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2515688{col 72}{space 3} .5064324
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 33.25734{col 31}{space 2} 3.399731{col 42}{space 1}    9.78{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.56008{col 72}{space 3}  39.9546
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,999 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       275
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 273)       = {res}    50.46
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4175.72347         1  4175.72347   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 22591.9831       273  82.7545169   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1560
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1529
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 26767.7066       274  97.6923598   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}  9.097

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4286067{col 31}{space 2} .0603377{col 42}{space 1}    7.10{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3098203{col 72}{space 3} .5473931
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.63668{col 31}{space 2} 3.192338{col 42}{space 1}    9.60{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.35195{col 72}{space 3}  36.9214
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       277
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 275)       = {res}    52.11
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4290.28536         1  4290.28536   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 22639.8507       275  82.3267299   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1593
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1563
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 26930.1361       276  97.5729569   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0734

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4316144{col 31}{space 2} .0597893{col 42}{space 1}    7.22{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3139116{col 72}{space 3} .5493172
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.45284{col 31}{space 2} 3.164061{col 42}{space 1}    9.62{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.22398{col 72}{space 3} 36.68169
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       287
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 285)       = {res}    57.81
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  4837.2061         1   4837.2061   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 23847.7498       285  83.6763152   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1686
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1657
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 28684.9559       286  100.297049   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1475

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4523899{col 31}{space 2}    .0595{col 42}{space 1}    7.60{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3352747{col 72}{space 3}  .569505
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.58072{col 31}{space 2}  3.15506{col 42}{space 1}    9.38{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.37055{col 72}{space 3}  35.7909
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       289
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 287)       = {res}    58.91
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4921.73754         1  4921.73754   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 23979.6782       287  83.5528857   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1703
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1674
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 28901.4157       288  100.352138   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1407

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4533877{col 31}{space 2} .0590733{col 42}{space 1}    7.68{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3371158{col 72}{space 3} .5696595
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.48622{col 31}{space 2} 3.128985{col 42}{space 1}    9.42{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.32755{col 72}{space 3} 35.64489
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,998 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       324
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 322)       = {res}    56.58
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5066.15321         1  5066.15321   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 28830.1463       322  89.5346157   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1495
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1468
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 33896.2995       323  104.942104   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.4623

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .425903{col 31}{space 2} .0566196{col 42}{space 1}    7.52{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3145119{col 72}{space 3} .5372942
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.48392{col 31}{space 2} 2.986096{col 42}{space 1}   10.21{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  24.6092{col 72}{space 3} 36.35864
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       327
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 325)       = {res}    57.52
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5135.52743         1  5135.52743   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 29014.9538       325  89.2767809   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1504
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1478
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 34150.4812       326  104.756077   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.4486

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4277161{col 31}{space 2} .0563939{col 42}{space 1}    7.58{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3167729{col 72}{space 3} .5386593
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.44775{col 31}{space 2} 2.976307{col 42}{space 1}   10.23{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.59249{col 72}{space 3} 36.30301
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       337
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 335)       = {res}    62.66
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5487.61756         1  5487.61756   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 29339.3028       335  87.5800083   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1576
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1551
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 34826.9203       336  103.651549   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3584

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4372473{col 31}{space 2}  .055238{col 42}{space 1}    7.92{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3285903{col 72}{space 3} .5459042
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.99101{col 31}{space 2}  2.91814{col 42}{space 1}   10.28{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.25083{col 72}{space 3}  35.7312
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       339
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 337)       = {res}    63.17
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5515.44883         1  5515.44883   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 29425.0258       337  87.3146165   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1579
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1554
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 34940.4746       338  103.374185   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3442

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4380975{col 31}{space 2} .0551219{col 42}{space 1}    7.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3296713{col 72}{space 3} .5465238
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.95517{col 31}{space 2} 2.910779{col 42}{space 1}   10.29{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.22959{col 72}{space 3} 35.68076
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,998 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       374
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 372)       = {res}    69.82
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5843.65785         1  5843.65785   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31136.5117       372  83.7003002   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1580
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1558
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 36980.1695       373  99.1425456   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1488

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4357804{col 31}{space 2} .0521541{col 42}{space 1}    8.36{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3332265{col 72}{space 3} .5383342
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.22504{col 31}{space 2} 2.743977{col 42}{space 1}   11.02{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.82939{col 72}{space 3} 35.62069
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       377
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 375)       = {res}    71.70
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5991.20238         1  5991.20238   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31333.4431       375  83.5558481   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1605
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1583
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 37324.6454       376   99.267674   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1409

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4383699{col 31}{space 2} .0517693{col 42}{space 1}    8.47{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3365755{col 72}{space 3} .5401644
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.09784{col 31}{space 2} 2.721783{col 42}{space 1}   11.06{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.74597{col 72}{space 3} 35.44971
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,022 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       388
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 386)       = {res}    77.37
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6398.01312         1  6398.01312   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31920.3621       386  82.6952387   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1670
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1648
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 38318.3752       387  99.0138895   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0937

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4480328{col 31}{space 2} .0509363{col 42}{space 1}    8.80{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3478854{col 72}{space 3} .5481801
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.59801{col 31}{space 2} 2.680814{col 42}{space 1}   11.04{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.32719{col 72}{space 3} 34.86884
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,032 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       389
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 387)       = {res}    78.95
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6512.71867         1  6512.71867   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31924.9455       387  82.4933993   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1694
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1673
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 38437.6642       388  99.0661448   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0826

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4460959{col 31}{space 2} .0502061{col 42}{space 1}    8.89{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  .347385{col 72}{space 3} .5448068
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.70387{col 31}{space 2} 2.639611{col 42}{space 1}   11.25{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.51409{col 72}{space 3} 34.89364
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,999 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       423
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 421)       = {res}    78.34
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6295.51631         1  6295.51631   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 33834.1378       421  80.3661231   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1569
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1549
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 40129.6541       422  95.0939671   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.9647

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .414037{col 31}{space 2}   .04678{col 42}{space 1}    8.85{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3220856{col 72}{space 3} .5059884
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 31.61319{col 31}{space 2}   2.4417{col 42}{space 1}   12.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.81375{col 72}{space 3} 36.41263
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

{com}. egen yhat_vote_simple = rowtotal(yhat_vote_simple_1990-yhat_vote_simple_2019), missing
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Generate error metrics for full model
. gen error_before = yhat_vote - vote_share if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,710 missing values generated)

{com}. gen abs_error_before = abs(yhat_vote - vote_share) if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,710 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Generate error metrics for simple model
. gen error_before_simple = yhat_vote_simple - vote_share if yhat_vote_simple != .
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. gen abs_error_before_simple = abs(yhat_vote_simple - vote_share) if yhat_vote_simple != .
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * In-sample predictions for full model
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 334)      = {res}    25.56
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14425.2525        11  1311.38659   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17136.5975       334  51.3071781   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4570
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4392
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1629

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1646413{col 36}{space 2} .0624089{col 47}{space 1}    2.64{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0418772{col 77}{space 3} .2874054
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.26573{col 36}{space 2} 4.428173{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-20.97636{col 77}{space 3} -3.55511
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.85637{col 36}{space 2} 9.947494{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.42401{col 77}{space 3} 5.711263
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3786156{col 36}{space 2} .0856011{col 47}{space 1}    4.42{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2102303{col 77}{space 3} .5470008
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3897305{col 36}{space 2} .1851283{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0255661{col 77}{space 3} .7538949
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.90813{col 36}{space 2}  4.45002{col 47}{space 1}    4.02{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.154533{col 77}{space 3} 26.66173
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1942206{col 36}{space 2}  .070322{col 47}{space 1}    2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0558907{col 77}{space 3} .3325505
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3598216{col 36}{space 2} .0888896{col 47}{space 1}   -4.05{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5346757{col 77}{space 3}-.1849676
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2369409{col 36}{space 2} .0852011{col 47}{space 1}   -2.78{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4045393{col 77}{space 3}-.0693424
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.17881{col 36}{space 2} 5.311509{col 47}{space 1}   -3.42{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.62704{col 77}{space 3}-7.730585
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3271077{col 36}{space 2}  .117081{col 47}{space 1}    2.79{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0967987{col 77}{space 3} .5574168
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.70784{col 36}{space 2} 7.166469{col 47}{space 1}    5.96{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.61074{col 77}{space 3} 56.80495
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. predict yhat_vote_insample
{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,676 missing values generated)

{com}. gen error_insample = yhat_vote_insample - vote_share if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,710 missing values generated)

{com}. gen abs_error_insample = abs(yhat_vote_insample - vote_share) if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,710 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * In-sample predictions for simple model
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       426
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 424)       = {res}    79.01
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6306.39621         1  6306.39621   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 33842.8619       424  79.8180705   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1571
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1551
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 40149.2581       425  94.4688426   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.9341

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4127671{col 31}{space 2} .0464371{col 42}{space 1}    8.89{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3214915{col 72}{space 3} .5040427
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 31.68314{col 31}{space 2} 2.421605{col 42}{space 1}   13.08{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.92329{col 72}{space 3} 36.44299
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. predict yhat_vote_insample_simple
{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(230 missing values generated)

{com}. gen error_insample_simple = yhat_vote_insample_simple - vote_share if yhat_vote_simple != .
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. gen abs_error_insample_simple = abs(yhat_vote_insample_simple - vote_share) if yhat_vote_simple != .
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Summarize error metrics for both models
. sum error_insample abs_error_insample error_before abs_error_before 

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
error_~ample {c |}{res}        323     .154057    7.056187  -20.91706   27.83949
{txt}abs_er~ample {c |}{res}        323    5.379303    4.559256   .0211296   27.83949
{txt}error_before {c |}{res}        323    .2390693    7.856046  -23.40812   27.53796
{txt}abs_error~re {c |}{res}        323     5.93253    5.144957   .0081558   27.53796
{txt}
{com}. sum error_insample_simple abs_error_insample_simple error_before_simple abs_error_before_simple

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
er~le_simple {c |}{res}        369    .2290668    8.933062  -21.69191   32.07635
{txt}ab~le_simple {c |}{res}        369    6.787109    5.801913   .0281639   32.07635
{txt}error_bef~le {c |}{res}        369    .4836175    9.064365  -20.98742   32.38823
{txt}ab~re_simple {c |}{res}        369    6.898293    5.889098   .0366211   32.38823
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * Visualizations
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. * Figure 1A: Approval vs Vote Share
. * Figure 1A: Approval vs Vote Share
. graph twoway ///
>     (scatter l2.Approval_Smoothed vote_share, mcolor(blue) msize(small)) ///
>     (line vote_share vote_share, lcolor(gray) lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)), ///
>     xlabel(15(5)85, labsize(small) angle(45) grid) ///
>     ylabel(15(5)85, labsize(small) grid) ///
>     xtitle("Vote Share") ///
>     ytitle("Gubernatorial Approval 2 Qtrs Pre-Election") ///
>     graphregion(color(white)) ///
>     plotregion(color(white)) ///
>     legend(off)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * Figure 1B: Predicted vs Actual Vote Share
. graph twoway ///
>     (scatter yhat_vote vote_share, mcolor(blue) msize(small)) ///
>     (line vote_share vote_share, lcolor(gray) lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)), ///
>     xlabel(15(5)85, labsize(small) angle(0) grid) ///
>     ylabel(15(5)85, labsize(small) grid) ///
>     xtitle("Vote Share") ///
>     ytitle("Before-the-Fact Predicted Vote Share") ///
>     graphregion(color(white)) ///
>     plotregion(color(white)) ///
>     legend(off)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * Alternative Model Analysis - Approval Only
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. use "full data gov.dta", clear
{txt}(Governor Approval May 20, 2021: Quarterly)

{com}. 
. foreach l of num 1990/2019 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.     reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed if year < `l'
{txt}  3{com}.     predict yhat_vote_`l' if year == `l' & vote_share != .
{txt}  4{com}. {c )-}

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        57
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 55)        = {res}     2.71
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 206.140793         1  206.140793   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.1052
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 4177.42553        55  75.9531914   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.0470
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.0297
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 4383.56632        56    78.27797   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.7151

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .2212443{col 31}{space 2}  .134296{col 42}{space 1}    1.65{col 51}{space 3}0.105{col 59}{space 4}-.0478909{col 72}{space 3} .4903796
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 42.93396{col 31}{space 2}  6.94587{col 42}{space 1}    6.18{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 29.01413{col 72}{space 3}  56.8538
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        89
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 87)        = {res}    11.66
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1001.94232         1  1001.94232   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0010
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  7473.6172        87   85.903646   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1182
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1081
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 8475.55953        88  96.3131764   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2684

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3506184{col 31}{space 2} .1026642{col 42}{space 1}    3.42{col 51}{space 3}0.001{col 59}{space 4} .1465621{col 72}{space 3} .5546746
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 35.40737{col 31}{space 2} 5.274125{col 42}{space 1}    6.71{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.92447{col 72}{space 3} 45.89026
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}        91
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 89)        = {res}    10.68
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 925.841361         1  925.841361   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0015
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  7714.0683        89  86.6749248   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1072
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.0971
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 8639.90966        90  95.9989963   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3099

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3357466{col 31}{space 2} .1027283{col 42}{space 1}    3.27{col 51}{space 3}0.002{col 59}{space 4} .1316277{col 72}{space 3} .5398656
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 36.23163{col 31}{space 2} 5.274082{col 42}{space 1}    6.87{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 25.75214{col 72}{space 3} 46.71112
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,024 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       100
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 98)        = {res}    13.24
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1141.21318         1  1141.21318   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0004
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8450.13165        98  86.2258331   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1190
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1100
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 9591.34482        99   96.882271   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2858

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3675944{col 31}{space 2} .1010425{col 42}{space 1}    3.64{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .1670788{col 72}{space 3}   .56811
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 34.84714{col 31}{space 2} 5.193249{col 42}{space 1}    6.71{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.54131{col 72}{space 3} 45.15298
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       102
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 100)       = {res}    14.07
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 1205.00235         1  1205.00235   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0003
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 8566.65576       100  85.6665576   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1233
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1145
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 9771.65811       101  96.7490902   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2556

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3754879{col 31}{space 2}  .100117{col 42}{space 1}    3.75{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .1768587{col 72}{space 3} .5741171
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 34.32546{col 31}{space 2} 5.131722{col 42}{space 1}    6.69{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.14427{col 72}{space 3} 44.50665
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       134
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 132)       = {res}    22.64
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2144.33156         1  2144.33156   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 12504.1134       132  94.7281316   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1464
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1399
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14648.4449       133  110.138684   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.7328

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4157288{col 31}{space 2} .0873783{col 42}{space 1}    4.76{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2428859{col 72}{space 3} .5885718
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.08975{col 31}{space 2} 4.463133{col 42}{space 1}    7.19{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.26123{col 72}{space 3} 40.91827
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       136
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 134)       = {res}    23.09
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  2154.7226         1   2154.7226   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 12504.9515       134  93.3205338   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1470
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1406
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 14659.6741       135  108.590179   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.6603

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4150158{col 31}{space 2} .0863689{col 42}{space 1}    4.81{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2441931{col 72}{space 3} .5858385
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.12088{col 31}{space 2} 4.412932{col 42}{space 1}    7.28{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.39287{col 72}{space 3} 40.84889
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       146
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 144)       = {res}    30.22
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2891.00332         1  2891.00332   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 13776.8044       144  95.6722526   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1734
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1677
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 16667.8077       145  114.950398   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.7812

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4511268{col 31}{space 2} .0820668{col 42}{space 1}    5.50{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2889157{col 72}{space 3} .6133379
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.56315{col 31}{space 2} 4.240854{col 42}{space 1}    7.21{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 22.18078{col 72}{space 3} 38.94551
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       148
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 146)       = {res}    30.86
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2916.68888         1  2916.68888   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 13796.8303       146   94.498838   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1745
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1689
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 16713.5192       147   113.69741   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.7211

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4521649{col 31}{space 2} .0813889{col 42}{space 1}    5.56{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2913124{col 72}{space 3} .6130175
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.47629{col 31}{space 2} 4.206384{col 42}{space 1}    7.25{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 22.16303{col 72}{space 3} 38.78956
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,000 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       181
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 179)       = {res}    34.69
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 3159.31653         1  3159.31653   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16301.4379       179  91.0694856   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1623
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1577
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19460.7544       180  108.115302   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}  9.543

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4394487{col 31}{space 2} .0746102{col 42}{space 1}    5.89{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}   .29222{col 72}{space 3} .5866773
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.99676{col 31}{space 2}  3.90227{col 42}{space 1}    7.94{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.29639{col 72}{space 3} 38.69713
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       183
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 181)       = {res}    34.89
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 3157.37872         1  3157.37872   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  16379.782       181   90.496033   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1616
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1570
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19537.1607       182  107.347037   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.5129

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .439313{col 31}{space 2} .0743747{col 42}{space 1}    5.91{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2925599{col 72}{space 3}  .586066
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 31.01505{col 31}{space 2} 3.889195{col 42}{space 1}    7.97{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.34106{col 72}{space 3} 38.68904
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       193
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 191)       = {res}    32.81
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2889.65529         1  2889.65529   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16820.3553       191  88.0646872   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1466
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1421
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19710.0105       192  102.656305   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3843

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4076814{col 31}{space 2} .0711703{col 42}{space 1}    5.73{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2673007{col 72}{space 3} .5480621
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.44643{col 31}{space 2}  3.74881{col 42}{space 1}    8.66{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 25.05205{col 72}{space 3} 39.84082
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       195
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 193)       = {res}    34.26
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2998.56813         1  2998.56813   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16893.7264       193  87.5322611   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1507
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1463
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 19892.2945       194  102.537601   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3559

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4130385{col 31}{space 2} .0705696{col 42}{space 1}    5.85{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2738518{col 72}{space 3} .5522251
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.10665{col 31}{space 2} 3.711769{col 42}{space 1}    8.65{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.78581{col 72}{space 3} 39.42749
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,001 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       227
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 225)       = {res}    32.86
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2810.84673         1  2810.84673   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 19247.6721       225  85.5452095   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1274
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1235
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 22058.5189       226  97.6040658   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2491

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3838344{col 31}{space 2} .0669612{col 42}{space 1}    5.73{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2518831{col 72}{space 3} .5157857
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 33.09349{col 31}{space 2} 3.522003{col 42}{space 1}    9.40{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.15316{col 72}{space 3} 40.03383
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       229
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 227)       = {res}    33.44
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2847.25535         1  2847.25535   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 19325.1482       227  85.1328113   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1284
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1246
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 22172.4035       228  97.2473839   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.2267

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3847175{col 31}{space 2} .0665238{col 42}{space 1}    5.78{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2536343{col 72}{space 3} .5158006
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 32.99772{col 31}{space 2} 3.496237{col 42}{space 1}    9.44{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  26.1085{col 72}{space 3} 39.88695
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       239
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 237)       = {res}    34.18
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2837.54397         1  2837.54397   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res}  19674.728       237  83.0157299   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1260
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1224
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}  22512.272       238   94.589378   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1113

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3801286{col 31}{space 2} .0650189{col 42}{space 1}    5.85{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2520399{col 72}{space 3} .5082174
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 33.20106{col 31}{space 2}  3.41788{col 42}{space 1}    9.71{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.46775{col 72}{space 3} 39.93436
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       241
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 239)       = {res}    34.33
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 2827.44135         1  2827.44135   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 19686.1803       239  82.3689552   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1256
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1219
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 22513.6216       240  93.8067569   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0757

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .3790006{col 31}{space 2} .0646882{col 42}{space 1}    5.86{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .2515688{col 72}{space 3} .5064324
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 33.25734{col 31}{space 2} 3.399731{col 42}{space 1}    9.78{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.56008{col 72}{space 3}  39.9546
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,999 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       275
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 273)       = {res}    50.46
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4175.72347         1  4175.72347   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 22591.9831       273  82.7545169   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1560
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1529
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 26767.7066       274  97.6923598   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res}  9.097

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4286067{col 31}{space 2} .0603377{col 42}{space 1}    7.10{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3098203{col 72}{space 3} .5473931
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.63668{col 31}{space 2} 3.192338{col 42}{space 1}    9.60{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.35195{col 72}{space 3}  36.9214
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       277
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 275)       = {res}    52.11
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4290.28536         1  4290.28536   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 22639.8507       275  82.3267299   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1593
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1563
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 26930.1361       276  97.5729569   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0734

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4316144{col 31}{space 2} .0597893{col 42}{space 1}    7.22{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3139116{col 72}{space 3} .5493172
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.45284{col 31}{space 2} 3.164061{col 42}{space 1}    9.62{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.22398{col 72}{space 3} 36.68169
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       287
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 285)       = {res}    57.81
{txt}       Model {c |} {res}  4837.2061         1   4837.2061   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 23847.7498       285  83.6763152   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1686
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1657
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 28684.9559       286  100.297049   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1475

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4523899{col 31}{space 2}    .0595{col 42}{space 1}    7.60{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3352747{col 72}{space 3}  .569505
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.58072{col 31}{space 2}  3.15506{col 42}{space 1}    9.38{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.37055{col 72}{space 3}  35.7909
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       289
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 287)       = {res}    58.91
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 4921.73754         1  4921.73754   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 23979.6782       287  83.5528857   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1703
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1674
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 28901.4157       288  100.352138   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1407

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4533877{col 31}{space 2} .0590733{col 42}{space 1}    7.68{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3371158{col 72}{space 3} .5696595
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.48622{col 31}{space 2} 3.128985{col 42}{space 1}    9.42{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 23.32755{col 72}{space 3} 35.64489
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,998 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       324
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 322)       = {res}    56.58
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5066.15321         1  5066.15321   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 28830.1463       322  89.5346157   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1495
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1468
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 33896.2995       323  104.942104   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.4623

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .425903{col 31}{space 2} .0566196{col 42}{space 1}    7.52{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3145119{col 72}{space 3} .5372942
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.48392{col 31}{space 2} 2.986096{col 42}{space 1}   10.21{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  24.6092{col 72}{space 3} 36.35864
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       327
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 325)       = {res}    57.52
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5135.52743         1  5135.52743   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 29014.9538       325  89.2767809   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1504
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1478
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 34150.4812       326  104.756077   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.4486

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4277161{col 31}{space 2} .0563939{col 42}{space 1}    7.58{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3167729{col 72}{space 3} .5386593
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.44775{col 31}{space 2} 2.976307{col 42}{space 1}   10.23{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.59249{col 72}{space 3} 36.30301
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,023 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       337
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 335)       = {res}    62.66
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5487.61756         1  5487.61756   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 29339.3028       335  87.5800083   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1576
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1551
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 34826.9203       336  103.651549   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3584

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4372473{col 31}{space 2}  .055238{col 42}{space 1}    7.92{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3285903{col 72}{space 3} .5459042
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.99101{col 31}{space 2}  2.91814{col 42}{space 1}   10.28{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.25083{col 72}{space 3}  35.7312
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,031 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       339
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 337)       = {res}    63.17
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5515.44883         1  5515.44883   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 29425.0258       337  87.3146165   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1579
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1554
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 34940.4746       338  103.374185   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.3442

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4380975{col 31}{space 2} .0551219{col 42}{space 1}    7.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3296713{col 72}{space 3} .5465238
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.95517{col 31}{space 2} 2.910779{col 42}{space 1}   10.29{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.22959{col 72}{space 3} 35.68076
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,998 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       374
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 372)       = {res}    69.82
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5843.65785         1  5843.65785   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31136.5117       372  83.7003002   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1580
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1558
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 36980.1695       373  99.1425456   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1488

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4357804{col 31}{space 2} .0521541{col 42}{space 1}    8.36{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3332265{col 72}{space 3} .5383342
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.22504{col 31}{space 2} 2.743977{col 42}{space 1}   11.02{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.82939{col 72}{space 3} 35.62069
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       377
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 375)       = {res}    71.70
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 5991.20238         1  5991.20238   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31333.4431       375  83.5558481   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1605
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1583
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 37324.6454       376   99.267674   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.1409

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4383699{col 31}{space 2} .0517693{col 42}{space 1}    8.47{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3365755{col 72}{space 3} .5401644
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 30.09784{col 31}{space 2} 2.721783{col 42}{space 1}   11.06{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.74597{col 72}{space 3} 35.44971
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,022 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       388
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 386)       = {res}    77.37
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6398.01312         1  6398.01312   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31920.3621       386  82.6952387   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1670
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1648
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 38318.3752       387  99.0138895   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0937

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4480328{col 31}{space 2} .0509363{col 42}{space 1}    8.80{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3478854{col 72}{space 3} .5481801
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.59801{col 31}{space 2} 2.680814{col 42}{space 1}   11.04{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.32719{col 72}{space 3} 34.86884
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,032 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       389
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 387)       = {res}    78.95
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6512.71867         1  6512.71867   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 31924.9455       387  82.4933993   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1694
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1673
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 38437.6642       388  99.0661448   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 9.0826

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} .4460959{col 31}{space 2} .0502061{col 42}{space 1}    8.89{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4}  .347385{col 72}{space 3} .5448068
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 29.70387{col 31}{space 2} 2.639611{col 42}{space 1}   11.25{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 24.51409{col 72}{space 3} 34.89364
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,999 missing values generated)

      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       423
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(1, 421)       = {res}    78.34
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 6295.51631         1  6295.51631   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 33834.1378       421  80.3661231   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.1569
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.1549
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 40129.6541       422  95.0939671   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 8.9647

{txt}{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       vote_share{col 19}{c |} Coefficient{col 31}  Std. err.{col 43}      t{col 51}   P>|t|{col 59}     [95% con{col 72}f. interval]
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2}  .414037{col 31}{space 2}   .04678{col 42}{space 1}    8.85{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} .3220856{col 72}{space 3} .5059884
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 19}{res}{space 2} 31.61319{col 31}{space 2}   2.4417{col 42}{space 1}   12.95{col 51}{space 3}0.000{col 59}{space 4} 26.81375{col 72}{space 3} 36.41263
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(7,030 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. egen yhat_vote = rowtotal(yhat_vote_1990-yhat_vote_2019), missing
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. gen error_before = yhat_vote - vote_share if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. gen abs_error_before = abs(yhat_vote - vote_share) if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,664 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 334)      = {res}    25.56
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14425.2525        11  1311.38659   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17136.5975       334  51.3071781   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4570
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4392
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1629

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1646413{col 36}{space 2} .0624089{col 47}{space 1}    2.64{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0418772{col 77}{space 3} .2874054
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.26573{col 36}{space 2} 4.428173{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-20.97636{col 77}{space 3} -3.55511
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.85637{col 36}{space 2} 9.947494{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.42401{col 77}{space 3} 5.711263
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3786156{col 36}{space 2} .0856011{col 47}{space 1}    4.42{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2102303{col 77}{space 3} .5470008
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3897305{col 36}{space 2} .1851283{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0255661{col 77}{space 3} .7538949
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.90813{col 36}{space 2}  4.45002{col 47}{space 1}    4.02{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.154533{col 77}{space 3} 26.66173
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1942206{col 36}{space 2}  .070322{col 47}{space 1}    2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0558907{col 77}{space 3} .3325505
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3598216{col 36}{space 2} .0888896{col 47}{space 1}   -4.05{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5346757{col 77}{space 3}-.1849676
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2369409{col 36}{space 2} .0852011{col 47}{space 1}   -2.78{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4045393{col 77}{space 3}-.0693424
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.17881{col 36}{space 2} 5.311509{col 47}{space 1}   -3.42{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.62704{col 77}{space 3}-7.730585
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3271077{col 36}{space 2}  .117081{col 47}{space 1}    2.79{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0967987{col 77}{space 3} .5574168
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.70784{col 36}{space 2} 7.166469{col 47}{space 1}    5.96{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.61074{col 77}{space 3} 56.80495
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. predict yhat_vote_insample
{txt}(option {bf:xb} assumed; fitted values)
(6,676 missing values generated)

{com}. gen error_insample = yhat_vote_insample - vote_share if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,710 missing values generated)

{com}. gen abs_error_insample = abs(yhat_vote_insample - vote_share) if yhat_vote != .
{txt}(6,710 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. sum error_insample abs_error_insample error_before abs_error_before, detail

                       {txt}error_insample
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} -16.9838      -20.91706
{txt} 5%    {res}-11.11184      -19.37313
{txt}10%    {res}-8.330383      -19.19521       {txt}Obs         {res}        323
{txt}25%    {res}-4.019566       -16.9838       {txt}Sum of wgt. {res}        323

{txt}50%    {res} .2218933                      {txt}Mean          {res}  .154057
                        {txt}Largest       Std. dev.     {res} 7.056187
{txt}75%    {res} 4.768597       18.59858
{txt}90%    {res} 7.861092       21.78564       {txt}Variance      {res} 49.78978
{txt}95%    {res} 11.30984       22.04464       {txt}Skewness      {res} .1159797
{txt}99%    {res} 18.59858       27.83949       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 3.991819

                     {txt}abs_error_insample
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} .1350517       .0211296
{txt} 5%    {res} .3631973       .1022835
{txt}10%    {res} .7030563       .1166496       {txt}Obs         {res}        323
{txt}25%    {res}  1.91832       .1350517       {txt}Sum of wgt. {res}        323

{txt}50%    {res} 4.367111                      {txt}Mean          {res} 5.379303
                        {txt}Largest       Std. dev.     {res} 4.559256
{txt}75%    {res} 7.468815       20.91706
{txt}90%    {res} 11.30984       21.78564       {txt}Variance      {res} 20.78682
{txt}95%    {res} 14.54126       22.04464       {txt}Skewness      {res} 1.461882
{txt}99%    {res} 20.91706       27.83949       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 5.738408

                        {txt}error_before
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res}-18.69331      -20.98742
{txt} 5%    {res}-14.41736      -18.95279
{txt}10%    {res}-12.24694      -18.86157       {txt}Obs         {res}        369
{txt}25%    {res} -5.09634      -18.69331       {txt}Sum of wgt. {res}        369

{txt}50%    {res} .6028786                      {txt}Mean          {res} .4836175
                        {txt}Largest       Std. dev.     {res} 9.064365
{txt}75%    {res} 5.932285       29.61269
{txt}90%    {res} 10.72786       29.87409       {txt}Variance      {res} 82.16271
{txt}95%    {res} 15.93169       31.58028       {txt}Skewness      {res} .3678364
{txt}99%    {res} 29.61269       32.38823       {txt}Kurtosis      {res}  3.82667

                      {txt}abs_error_before
{hline 61}
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    {res} .1874275       .0366211
{txt} 5%    {res} .5158424       .0814133
{txt}10%    {res} .8459435       .1766052       {txt}Obs         {res}        369
{txt}25%    {res} 2.410664       .1874275       {txt}Sum of wgt. {res}        369

{txt}50%    {res} 5.474648                      {txt}Mean          {res} 6.898293
                        {txt}Largest       Std. dev.     {res} 5.889098
{txt}75%    {res}  9.91452       29.61269
{txt}90%    {res} 14.98054       29.87409       {txt}Variance      {res} 34.68147
{txt}95%    {res} 17.86345       31.58028       {txt}Skewness      {res} 1.381092
{txt}99%    {res} 29.61269       32.38823       {txt}Kurtosis      {res} 5.386723
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * 2022 State-by-State Forecasts
. * These are used in the assessment of the model performance and displayed in
. * Appendix 4 (Tables A5 and A6)
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. **Table A5**
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 334)      = {res}    25.56
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14425.2525        11  1311.38659   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17136.5975       334  51.3071781   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4570
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4392
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1629

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1646413{col 36}{space 2} .0624089{col 47}{space 1}    2.64{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0418772{col 77}{space 3} .2874054
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.26573{col 36}{space 2} 4.428173{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-20.97636{col 77}{space 3} -3.55511
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.85637{col 36}{space 2} 9.947494{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.42401{col 77}{space 3} 5.711263
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3786156{col 36}{space 2} .0856011{col 47}{space 1}    4.42{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2102303{col 77}{space 3} .5470008
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3897305{col 36}{space 2} .1851283{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0255661{col 77}{space 3} .7538949
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.90813{col 36}{space 2}  4.45002{col 47}{space 1}    4.02{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.154533{col 77}{space 3} 26.66173
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1942206{col 36}{space 2}  .070322{col 47}{space 1}    2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0558907{col 77}{space 3} .3325505
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3598216{col 36}{space 2} .0888896{col 47}{space 1}   -4.05{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5346757{col 77}{space 3}-.1849676
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2369409{col 36}{space 2} .0852011{col 47}{space 1}   -2.78{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4045393{col 77}{space 3}-.0693424
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.17881{col 36}{space 2} 5.311509{col 47}{space 1}   -3.42{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.62704{col 77}{space 3}-7.730585
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3271077{col 36}{space 2}  .117081{col 47}{space 1}    2.79{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0967987{col 77}{space 3} .5574168
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.70784{col 36}{space 2} 7.166469{col 47}{space 1}    5.96{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.61074{col 77}{space 3} 56.80495
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}.  *Alabama*
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 57 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=37 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=32) statistics (est ul ll) rown(Alabama) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Alaska
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 52 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=44.7 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=35) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Alaska) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Arizona
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 44 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=50.1568 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=39) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Arizona) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Arkansas
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 58 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=35.7876 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=32) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Arkansas) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *California 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=64.9089 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=52) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(California) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Colorado
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 57 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=64.9089 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Colorado) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Connecticut
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 58 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=60.1951 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Connecticut) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Florida
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=48.3052 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=43) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Florida) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Georgia 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 52 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=50.1193 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Georgia) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Hawaii 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 44 Incumbcode= 0 gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=65.0327 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Hawaii) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Idaho 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 54 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=34.1229 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=28) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Idaho) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Illinois
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 51 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=58.659 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Illinois) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Iowa 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 47 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=45.8167 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=36) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Iowa) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Kansas 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 56 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=42.5066 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=36) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Kansas)  dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Maine 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=42.5066 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=43) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Maine) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Maryland
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 70 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=67.0291 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Maryland) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Massachusetts
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 73 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=67.0291 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Massachusetts) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Michigan
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 50 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=51.4136 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Michigan) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Minnesota
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 51 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=53.6395 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=44) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Minnesota) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Nebraska
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 51 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=40.216 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=30) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Nebraska) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Nevada
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 50 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=51.2231 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Nevada) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *New Hampshire
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 60 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=53.7484 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(New Hampshire) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *New Mexico
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 49 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=53.7484 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(New Mexico) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *New York
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 49 Incumbcode= 2  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=61.7168 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=49) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(New York) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Ohio 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 57 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=45.9233 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=37) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Ohio) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Oklahoma 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 48 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=33.06 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=28) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Oklahoma)  dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Oregon 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 40 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=58.3072 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Oregon) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Pennsylvania
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 47 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=50.5892 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=41) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Pennsylvania) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Rhode Island
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 38 Incumbcode= 2  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=60.5994 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=44) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Rhode Island) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *South Carolina
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=44.0734 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=37) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(South Carolina) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *South Dakota
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 59 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=36.5652 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=33) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(South Dakota) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Tennessee
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 56 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=36.5652 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=31) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Tennessee) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Texas
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 50 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=47.1693 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=37) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Texas) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Vermont
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 74 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=68.2992 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Vermont) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Wisconsin
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 46 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=50.3191 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=39) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Wisconsin) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Wyoming 
. mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 74 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=27.5196 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=22) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Wyoming) dec(2)
{res}
Expression: Linear prediction, predict()

{txt}{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:xb}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ul}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ll}{space 0}
{space 1}{hline 15}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 9}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Alabama}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   65.61}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   68.32}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   62.89}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Alaska}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   60.90}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   63.10}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   58.71}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Arizona}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   50.31}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   52.49}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   48.13}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Arkansas}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   56.66}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   59.66}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   53.65}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:California}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   58.35}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   60.95}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   55.75}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Colorado}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   60.07}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   62.75}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   57.40}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Connecticut}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   59.70}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   61.98}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   57.43}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Florida}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   58.96}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   60.44}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   57.47}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Georgia}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   58.35}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   59.89}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   56.80}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Hawaii}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   49.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   51.52}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   46.49}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Idaho}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   65.40}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   68.68}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   62.12}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Illinois}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   55.60}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   57.48}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   53.72}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Iowa}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   57.77}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   59.98}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   55.55}}}{space 0}
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{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Rhode Island}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   47.48}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   54.07}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   40.88}}}{space 0}
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{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Wyoming}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   78.78}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   83.65}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   73.91}}}{space 0}
{res}
{txt}{p 0 0 2}Specified values of covariates{p_end}

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{space 1}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 22}{hline 12}{hline 11}{hline 19}
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{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:Approva~s}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:pres_co~n}{space 0}
{space 1}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 27}{hline 16}
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{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. **Table A6 **
. logit winner l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan

{txt}note: {bf:3.gov_party} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:3.gov_party} omitted and 3 obs not used.

note: {bf:3.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party} omitted because of collinearity.
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-216.35067}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-162.88911}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-156.04714}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78596}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78531}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78531}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:346}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:11})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:121.13}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-155.78531}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.2799}

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                winner{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      z{col 56}   P>|z|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0437658{col 36}{space 2}  .020384{col 47}{space 1}    2.15{col 56}{space 3}0.032{col 64}{space 4} .0038139{col 77}{space 3} .0837176
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-3.081159{col 36}{space 2} 1.790465{col 47}{space 1}   -1.72{col 56}{space 3}0.085{col 64}{space 4}-6.590405{col 77}{space 3} .4280875
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .8823279{col 36}{space 2} 4.364133{col 47}{space 1}    0.20{col 56}{space 3}0.840{col 64}{space 4}-7.671216{col 77}{space 3} 9.435872
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0976519{col 36}{space 2} .0365078{col 47}{space 1}    2.67{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .0260979{col 77}{space 3} .1692059
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0198462{col 36}{space 2} .0876775{col 47}{space 1}    0.23{col 56}{space 3}0.821{col 64}{space 4}-.1519986{col 77}{space 3} .1916911
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 4.601556{col 36}{space 2} 1.631233{col 47}{space 1}    2.82{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} 1.404397{col 77}{space 3} 7.798714
{txt}{space 20}3  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (empty)
{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0705963{col 36}{space 2} .0264632{col 47}{space 1}    2.67{col 56}{space 3}0.008{col 64}{space 4} .0187294{col 77}{space 3} .1224633
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0962892{col 36}{space 2} .0324634{col 47}{space 1}   -2.97{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4}-.1599163{col 77}{space 3}-.0326621
{txt}{space 20}3  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (empty)
{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1707225{col 36}{space 2} .0429719{col 47}{space 1}   -3.97{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} -.254946{col 77}{space 3}-.0864991
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-9.146607{col 36}{space 2}  2.35503{col 47}{space 1}   -3.88{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-13.76238{col 77}{space 3}-4.530834
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1779892{col 36}{space 2} .0498209{col 47}{space 1}    3.57{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}  .080342{col 77}{space 3} .2756364
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 2.827323{col 36}{space 2} 2.930003{col 47}{space 1}    0.96{col 56}{space 3}0.335{col 64}{space 4}-2.915378{col 77}{space 3} 8.570024
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. *Alabama*
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 57 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=37 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=32) statistics (est ul ll) rown(Alabama) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Alaska
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 52 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=44.7 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=35) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Alaska) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Arizona
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 44 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=50.1568 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=39) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Arizona) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Arkansas
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 58 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=35.7876 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=32) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Arkansas) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *California 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=64.9089 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=52) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(California) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Colorado
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 57 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=64.9089 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Colorado) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Connecticut
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 58 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=60.1951 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Connecticut) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Florida
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=48.3052 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=43) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Florida) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Georgia 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 52 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=50.1193 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Georgia) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Hawaii 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 44 Incumbcode= 0 gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=65.0327 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Hawaii) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Idaho 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 54 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=34.1229 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=28) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Idaho) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Illinois
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 51 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=58.659 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Illinois) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Iowa 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 47 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=45.8167 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=36) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Iowa) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Kansas 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 56 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=42.5066 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=36) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Kansas)  dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Maine 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=42.5066 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=43) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Maine) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Maryland
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 70 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=67.0291 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Maryland) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Massachusetts
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 73 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=67.0291 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Massachusetts) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Michigan
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 50 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=51.4136 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Michigan) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Minnesota
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 51 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=53.6395 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=44) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Minnesota) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Nebraska
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 51 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=40.216 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=30) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Nebraska) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Nevada
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 50 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=51.2231 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Nevada) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *New Hampshire
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 60 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=53.7484 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=42) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(New Hampshire) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *New Mexico
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 49 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=53.7484 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(New Mexico) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *New York
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 49 Incumbcode= 2  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=61.7168 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=49) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(New York) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Ohio 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 57 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=45.9233 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=37) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Ohio) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Oklahoma 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 48 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=33.06 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=28) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Oklahoma)  dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Oregon 
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 40 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=58.3072 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=47) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Oregon) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Pennsylvania
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 47 Incumbcode= 0  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=50.5892 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=41) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Pennsylvania) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Rhode Island
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 38 Incumbcode= 2  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=60.5994 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=44) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Rhode Island) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *South Carolina
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 53 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=44.0734 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=37) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(South Carolina) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *South Dakota
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 59 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=36.5652 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=33) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(South Dakota) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Tennessee
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 56 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=36.5652 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=31) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Tennessee) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Texas
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 50 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=47.1693 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=37) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Texas) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Vermont
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 74 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=68.2992 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=51) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Vermont) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Wisconsin
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 46 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=1 dem_per_two_party=50.3191 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=39) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Wisconsin) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. *Wyoming 
. mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed= 74 Incumbcode= 1  gov_party=2 dem_per_two_party=27.5196 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=22) statistics (est ul ll) below rown(Wyoming) dec(2)
{res}
Expression: Pr(winner), predict()

{txt}{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Pr(y)}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ul}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ll}{space 0}
{space 1}{hline 15}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 9}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Alabama}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Alaska}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.98}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Arizona}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.80}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.95}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.65}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Arkansas}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.01}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.93}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:California}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.95}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.91}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Colorado}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.94}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Connecticut}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.93}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Florida}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.96}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.93}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Georgia}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.96}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.93}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Hawaii}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.64}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.84}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.44}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Idaho}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Illinois}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.91}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.84}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Iowa}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.98}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.95}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Kansas}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.86}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.74}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Maine}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.80}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.92}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.68}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Maryland}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.52}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.83}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.21}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Massachusetts}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.55}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.88}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.22}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Michigan}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.83}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.92}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.75}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Minnesota}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.87}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.94}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.80}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Nebraska}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.02}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.93}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Nevada}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.83}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.92}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.74}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:New Hampshire}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:New Mexico}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.84}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.92}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.76}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:New York}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.92}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.05}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.78}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Ohio}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.98}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Oklahoma}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Oregon}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.47}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.63}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.31}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Pennsylvania}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.40}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.53}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.28}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Rhode Island}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.83}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.18}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.48}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:South Carolina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:South Dakota}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Tennessee}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Texas}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.98}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.96}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Vermont}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.01}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.97}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Wisconsin}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.72}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.85}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.59}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Wyoming}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 0}
{res}
{txt}{p 0 0 2}Specified values of covariates{p_end}

{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 21:L2.}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 11:}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 10:}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 18:}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:Approva..}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:Incumbc~e}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:gov_party}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:dem_per~y}{space 1}
{space 1}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 22}{hline 12}{hline 11}{hline 19}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 1}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  57}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               37}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 2}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  52}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               45}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  44}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               50}}}{space 1}
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{res}{txt}
{com}.         
.         
. ********************************************************************************
. * Analysis of 2022 Results
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. use "2022 results data.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Calculate  errors
. gen error_lasso = lassovote - results
{txt}
{com}. gen error_pvi = pvi_forecast - results
{txt}
{com}. gen error_538 = _538forecast - results
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Calculate absolute errors
. gen abs_error_lasso = abs(results - lassovote)
{txt}
{com}. gen abs_error_pvi = abs(results - pvi_forecast)
{txt}
{com}. gen abs_error_538 = abs(results - _538forecast)
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Calculate squared errors
. gen error_sq_lasso = (results - lassovote)^2
{txt}
{com}. gen error_sq_pvi = (results - pvi_forecast)^2
{txt}
{com}. gen error_sq_538 = (results - _538forecast)^2
{txt}
{com}. 
. **Table 2 MAE**
. * Calculate error metrics
. // Calculate and display square root of means for absolute errors
. mean abs_error_lasso abs_error_538  abs_error_pvi
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 48}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 61} = {res}{ralign 2:35}

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}       Mean{col 29}   Std. err.{col 41}     [95% con{col 54}f. interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
abs_error_lasso {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.158572{col 29}{space 2} .7049232{col 40}{space 5} 2.725995{col 54}{space 3} 5.591148
{txt}{space 2}abs_error_538 {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.084566{col 29}{space 2} .4088419{col 40}{space 5} 2.253699{col 54}{space 3} 3.915433
{txt}{space 2}abs_error_pvi {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 4.757143{col 29}{space 2}  1.10517{col 40}{space 5} 2.511168{col 54}{space 3} 7.003118
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. **Table 2 RMSE**
. // Calculate and display square root of means for squared errors
. mean error_sq_lasso error_sq_538 error_sq_pvi 
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 47}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 60} = {res}{ralign 2:35}

{txt}{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}       Mean{col 28}   Std. err.{col 40}     [95% con{col 53}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
error_sq_lasso {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 34.18889{col 28}{space 2} 10.03126{col 39}{space 5} 13.80292{col 53}{space 3} 54.57485
{txt}{space 2}error_sq_538 {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 15.19771{col 28}{space 2} 3.639226{col 39}{space 5} 7.801909{col 53}{space 3}  22.5935
{txt}{space 2}error_sq_pvi {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 64.15801{col 28}{space 2} 39.63546{col 39}{space 5}-16.39093{col 53}{space 3} 144.7069
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. matrix B = e(b)
{txt}
{com}. foreach var in error_sq_pvi error_sq_lasso error_sq_538 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.     local i = colnumb(B, "`var'")
{txt}  3{com}.     display "sqrt(mean) of `var': " sqrt(B[1,`i'])
{txt}  4{com}. {c )-}
sqrt(mean) of error_sq_pvi: 8.0098693
sqrt(mean) of error_sq_lasso: 5.8471264
sqrt(mean) of error_sq_538: 3.8984235
{txt}
{com}. **Table 2 MAE no MA, MD, HI**
. * Calculate error metrics excluding high-leverage cases of MA, MD, HI
.  // Calculate and display square root of means for absolute errors
. mean abs_error_lasso abs_error_538  abs_error_pvi  if mass_mary_hi == 0
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 48}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 61} = {res}{ralign 2:32}

{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}       Mean{col 29}   Std. err.{col 41}     [95% con{col 54}f. interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
abs_error_lasso {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}   3.2075{col 29}{space 2} .5056168{col 40}{space 5} 2.176288{col 54}{space 3} 4.238712
{txt}{space 2}abs_error_538 {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 3.211874{col 29}{space 2} .4369687{col 40}{space 5} 2.320671{col 54}{space 3} 4.103078
{txt}{space 2}abs_error_pvi {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}   5.1375{col 29}{space 2} 1.187381{col 40}{space 5}  2.71582{col 54}{space 3}  7.55918
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. **Table 2 RMSE no MA, MD, HI**
. // Calculate and display square root of means for squared errors
. mean error_sq_lasso error_sq_538 error_sq_pvi if mass_mary_hi == 0
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Mean estimation{col 47}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 60} = {res}{ralign 2:32}

{txt}{hline 15}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
{col 16}{c |}       Mean{col 28}   Std. err.{col 40}     [95% con{col 53}f. interval]
{hline 15}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}
error_sq_lasso {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 18.21315{col 28}{space 2} 4.962911{col 39}{space 5} 8.091232{col 53}{space 3} 28.33508
{txt}{space 2}error_sq_538 {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 16.23533{col 28}{space 2} 3.930939{col 39}{space 5} 8.218124{col 53}{space 3} 24.25253
{txt}{space 2}error_sq_pvi {c |}{col 16}{res}{space 2} 70.10001{col 28}{space 2} 43.25784{col 39}{space 5}-18.12494{col 53}{space 3}  158.325
{txt}{hline 15}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 14}{hline 12}

{com}. matrix B = e(b)
{txt}
{com}. foreach var in error_sq_pvi error_sq_lasso error_sq_538 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.     local i = colnumb(B, "`var'")
{txt}  3{com}.     display "sqrt(mean) of `var': " sqrt(B[1,`i'])
{txt}  4{com}. {c )-}
sqrt(mean) of error_sq_pvi: 8.3725747
sqrt(mean) of error_sq_lasso: 4.2676873
sqrt(mean) of error_sq_538: 4.0293086
{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * Visualizations
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. * Figure 2: Confidence Intervals and Results
. twoway ///
>     (rcap ll ul states if !missing(ul) & !missing(ll) & !missing(states), ///
>         horizontal lcolor(orange) msize(small)) ///
>     (scatter states lassovote if !missing(lassovote) & !missing(states), ///
>         msymbol(circle) mcolor(black) msize(small)) ///
>     (scatter states results if !missing(results) & !missing(states), ///
>         msymbol(diamond) mcolor(gs10) msize(small)), ///
>     yscale(reverse noline) ///
>     ylabel(#35, valuelabel labsize(small) angle(0) grid glcolor(gs15) glwidth(thin)) ///
>     xlabel(30(10)80, labsize(small) grid gstyle(minor) glcolor(gs15) glwidth(thin)) ///
>     xtitle("Incumbent Party Vote") ///
>     ytitle("") ///
>     xline(50, lcolor(gs13) lwidth(thin)) ///
>     legend(off) ///
>     graphregion(color(white)) ///
>     plotregion(color(white))
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * First, create value labels for states
. encode state_name, generate(state_id)
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Figure 3: Error Comparison by State
. twoway ///
>     (scatter state_id error_538 if !missing(error_538), ///
>         msymbol(circle) mcolor(blue) msize(small)) ///
>     (scatter state_id error_lasso if !missing(error_lasso), ///
>         msymbol(diamond) mcolor(orange) msize(small)) ///
>     (scatter state_id error_pvi if !missing(error_pvi), ///
>         msymbol(square) mcolor(gs10) msize(small)), ///
>     yscale(reverse noline) ///
>     ylabel(#35, valuelabel labsize(small) angle(0) noticks grid glcolor(gs15) glwidth(thin) labgap(0)) ///
>     xlabel(-40(20)20, labsize(small) grid gstyle(minor) glcolor(gs15) glwidth(thin)) ///
>     xline(0, lcolor(black) lwidth(thin)) ///
>     legend(order(1 "Error: 538" 2 "Error: LASSO-Popularity" 3 "Error: Cook's PVI") ///
>         rows(1) position(6) size(small) symxsize(small)) ///
>     graphregion(color(white) margin(l=0)) ///
>     plotregion(color(white) margin(l=0))
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Figure 3B: Absolute Error by Incumbent Party
. graph dot (asis) abs_error_538 abs_error_lasso abs_error_pvi,  ///
>     over(state_name, sort(incumbent_party) label(labsize(vsmall))) linetype(line) lines(lcolor(gs15)) ///
>     marker(1, msymbol(circle) mcolor(blue) msize(small)) ///
>     marker(2, msymbol(diamond) mcolor(orange) msize(small)) ///
>     marker(3, msymbol(square) mcolor(gray) msize(small)) ///
>             legend(order(1 "Absolute Error: 538" ///
>                  2 "Absolute Error: LASSO-Popularity" ///
>                  3 "Absolute Error: Cook's PVI") ///
>            rows(1) size(vsmall) region(lcolor(white))) ///
>     text(-7 65 "G.O.P." 25 -7 "Democrat", orientation(vert) size(small))
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * 2024 Vote Share Forecasts
. ********************************************************************************
. **Table 3**
. use "full data gov.dta", clear
{txt}(Governor Approval May 20, 2021: Quarterly)

{com}. 
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 334)      = {res}    25.56
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14425.2525        11  1311.38659   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17136.5975       334  51.3071781   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4570
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4392
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1629

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1646413{col 36}{space 2} .0624089{col 47}{space 1}    2.64{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0418772{col 77}{space 3} .2874054
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.26573{col 36}{space 2} 4.428173{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-20.97636{col 77}{space 3} -3.55511
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.85637{col 36}{space 2} 9.947494{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.42401{col 77}{space 3} 5.711263
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3786156{col 36}{space 2} .0856011{col 47}{space 1}    4.42{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2102303{col 77}{space 3} .5470008
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3897305{col 36}{space 2} .1851283{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0255661{col 77}{space 3} .7538949
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.90813{col 36}{space 2}  4.45002{col 47}{space 1}    4.02{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.154533{col 77}{space 3} 26.66173
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1942206{col 36}{space 2}  .070322{col 47}{space 1}    2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0558907{col 77}{space 3} .3325505
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3598216{col 36}{space 2} .0888896{col 47}{space 1}   -4.05{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5346757{col 77}{space 3}-.1849676
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2369409{col 36}{space 2} .0852011{col 47}{space 1}   -2.78{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4045393{col 77}{space 3}-.0693424
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.17881{col 36}{space 2} 5.311509{col 47}{space 1}   -3.42{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.62704{col 77}{space 3}-7.730585
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3271077{col 36}{space 2}  .117081{col 47}{space 1}    2.79{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0967987{col 77}{space 3} .5574168
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.70784{col 36}{space 2} 7.166469{col 47}{space 1}    5.96{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.61074{col 77}{space 3} 56.80495
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. * Delaware
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=59 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=1 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=60 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=44) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Delaware) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Indiana
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=52 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=42 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=33) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Indiana) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Missouri
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=52 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=42 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=33) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Missouri) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Montana
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=57 Incumbcode=1 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=42 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=35) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Montana) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * New Hampshire
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=63 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=54 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=43) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(New Hampshire) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * North Carolina
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=55 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=1 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=49 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=40) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(North Carolina) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * North Dakota
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=59 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=33 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=25) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(North Dakota) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Utah
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=55 Incumbcode=1 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=39 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=30) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Utah) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Vermont
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=81 Incumbcode=1 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=68 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=49) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Vermont) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Washington
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=49 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=1 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=60 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=49) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Washington) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * West Virginia
. mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=63 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=30 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=24) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(West Virginia) dec(2) below
{res}
Expression: Linear prediction, predict()

{txt}{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:xb}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ul}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ll}{space 0}
{space 1}{hline 15}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 9}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Delaware}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   49.86}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   52.37}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   47.36}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Indiana}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   54.40}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   57.09}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   51.72}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Missouri}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   54.40}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   57.09}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   51.72}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Montana}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   64.07}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   66.32}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   61.82}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:New Hampshire}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   51.86}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   54.31}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   49.40}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:North Carolina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   46.71}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   48.48}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   44.94}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:North Dakota}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   58.94}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   62.89}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   55.00}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Utah}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   64.66}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   67.56}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   61.77}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Vermont}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   69.48}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   73.92}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   65.05}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Washington}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   48.67}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   50.68}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   46.65}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:West Virginia}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   60.33}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   64.58}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:   56.09}}}{space 0}
{res}
{txt}{p 0 0 2}Specified values of covariates{p_end}

{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 21:L2.}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 11:}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 10:}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 18:}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:Approva..}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:Incumbc~e}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:gov_party}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:dem_per~y}{space 1}
{space 1}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 22}{hline 12}{hline 11}{hline 19}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 1}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  59}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               60}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 2}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  52}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               42}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  52}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               42}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 4}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  57}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               42}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 5}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  63}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               54}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 6}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  55}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               49}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 7}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  59}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               33}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 8}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  55}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               39}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 9}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  81}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               68}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 10}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  49}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               60}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Current}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  63}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               30}}}{space 1}

{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 26:L2.}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 16:}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:Approva~s}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:pres_co~n}{space 0}
{space 1}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 27}{hline 16}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 1}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       44}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              1}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 2}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       33}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       33}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 4}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       35}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 5}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       43}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 6}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       40}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              1}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 7}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       25}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 8}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       30}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 9}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       49}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 10}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       49}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              1}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Current}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       24}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * 2024 Winner Forecasts
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. logit winner l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 

{txt}note: {bf:3.gov_party} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:3.gov_party} omitted and 3 obs not used.

note: {bf:3.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party} omitted because of collinearity.
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-216.35067}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-162.88911}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-156.04714}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78596}  
Iteration 4:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78531}  
Iteration 5:{space 2}Log likelihood = {res:-155.78531}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Logistic regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:346}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:LR chi2({res:11})}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:121.13}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.0000}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 14:Log likelihood}{col 15} = {res}{ralign 10:-155.78531}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.2799}

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                winner{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      z{col 56}   P>|z|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0437658{col 36}{space 2}  .020384{col 47}{space 1}    2.15{col 56}{space 3}0.032{col 64}{space 4} .0038139{col 77}{space 3} .0837176
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-3.081159{col 36}{space 2} 1.790465{col 47}{space 1}   -1.72{col 56}{space 3}0.085{col 64}{space 4}-6.590405{col 77}{space 3} .4280875
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .8823279{col 36}{space 2} 4.364133{col 47}{space 1}    0.20{col 56}{space 3}0.840{col 64}{space 4}-7.671216{col 77}{space 3} 9.435872
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0976519{col 36}{space 2} .0365078{col 47}{space 1}    2.67{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .0260979{col 77}{space 3} .1692059
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0198462{col 36}{space 2} .0876775{col 47}{space 1}    0.23{col 56}{space 3}0.821{col 64}{space 4}-.1519986{col 77}{space 3} .1916911
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 4.601556{col 36}{space 2} 1.631233{col 47}{space 1}    2.82{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} 1.404397{col 77}{space 3} 7.798714
{txt}{space 20}3  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (empty)
{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0705963{col 36}{space 2} .0264632{col 47}{space 1}    2.67{col 56}{space 3}0.008{col 64}{space 4} .0187294{col 77}{space 3} .1224633
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.0962892{col 36}{space 2} .0324634{col 47}{space 1}   -2.97{col 56}{space 3}0.003{col 64}{space 4}-.1599163{col 77}{space 3}-.0326621
{txt}{space 20}3  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}        0{col 36}{txt}  (empty)
{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.1707225{col 36}{space 2} .0429719{col 47}{space 1}   -3.97{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} -.254946{col 77}{space 3}-.0864991
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-9.146607{col 36}{space 2}  2.35503{col 47}{space 1}   -3.88{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-13.76238{col 77}{space 3}-4.530834
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1779892{col 36}{space 2} .0498209{col 47}{space 1}    3.57{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}  .080342{col 77}{space 3} .2756364
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 2.827323{col 36}{space 2} 2.930003{col 47}{space 1}    0.96{col 56}{space 3}0.335{col 64}{space 4}-2.915378{col 77}{space 3} 8.570024
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * Delaware
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=59 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=1 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=60 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=44) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Delaware) dec(2)
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Indiana
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=52 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=42 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=33) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Indiana) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Missouri
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=52 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=42 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=33) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Missouri) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Montana
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=57 Incumbcode=1 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=42 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=35) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Montana) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * New Hampshire
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=63 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=54 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=43) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(New Hampshire) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * North Carolina
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=55 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=1 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=49 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=40) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(North Carolina) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * North Dakota
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=59 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=33 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=25) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(North Dakota) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Utah
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=55 Incumbcode=1 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=39 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=30) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Utah) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Vermont
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=81 Incumbcode=1 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=68 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=49) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Vermont) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Washington
. quietly mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=49 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=1 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=60 pres_copartisan=1 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=49) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(Washington) dec(2) below
{txt}
{com}. 
. * West Virginia
. mtable, at(l2.Approval_Smoothed=63 Incumbcode=0 gov_party=2 ///
>     dem_per_two_party=30 pres_copartisan=0 l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres=24) ///
>     statistics(est ul ll) rown(West Virginia) dec(2) below
{res}
Expression: Pr(winner), predict()

{txt}{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Pr(y)}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ul}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:ll}{space 0}
{space 1}{hline 15}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 9}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Delaware}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.69}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.88}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.51}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Indiana}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.95}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.01}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.89}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Missouri}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.95}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.01}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.89}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Montana}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:New Hampshire}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.81}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.95}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.67}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:North Carolina}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.46}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.60}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.32}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:North Dakota}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.01}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.98}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Utah}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Vermont}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.99}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:Washington}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.60}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.77}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.44}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 14:West Virginia}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.00}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    1.01}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:    0.98}}}{space 0}
{res}
{txt}{p 0 0 2}Specified values of covariates{p_end}

{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 21:L2.}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 11:}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 10:}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 18:}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:Approva..}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:Incumbc~e}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:gov_party}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:dem_per~y}{space 1}
{space 1}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 22}{hline 12}{hline 11}{hline 19}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 1}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  59}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               60}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 2}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  52}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               42}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  52}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               42}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 4}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  57}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               42}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 5}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  63}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               54}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 6}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  55}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               49}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 7}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  59}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               33}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 8}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  55}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               39}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 9}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  81}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               68}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 10}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  49}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        1}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               60}}}{space 1}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Current}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 20:{res:{sf:                  63}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 10:{res:{sf:         0}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 9:{res:{sf:        2}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 17:{res:{sf:               30}}}{space 1}

{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 26:L2.}{space 0}{space 1}{ralign 16:}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:Approva~s}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:pres_co~n}{space 0}
{space 1}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 27}{hline 16}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 1}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       44}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              1}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 2}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       33}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       33}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 4}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       35}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 5}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       43}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 6}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       40}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              1}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 7}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       25}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 8}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       30}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 9}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       49}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Set 10}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       49}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              1}}}{space 0}
{space 1}{space 0}{ralign 9:Current}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 25:{res:{sf:                       24}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 15:{res:{sf:              0}}}{space 0}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. ********************************************************************************
. * Appendix Analyses
. * Values and tables in Appendices 1 and 2 of the supplemental materials are from 
. * Singer (2023) and are reproduced, along with a link to the original source, 
. * for the reader's convenience (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/I6VZ9Y)
. * Values for Appendix 4 (Tables A5 and A6) are produced above
. ********************************************************************************
. 
. **Apendix 3**
. 
. * Base Model
. lasso2 vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 
{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm        EBIC{col 58}R-sq   {c |} Action
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 15}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}3295.79488{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.00000{col 43} 1567.43634{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}3003.00555{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.01575{col 43} 1558.35745{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0422{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   4{col 13}2493.14796{col 25}   3{col 31}   0.05530{col 43} 1537.36912{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1137{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  12{col 13}1184.44727{col 25}   4{col 31}   0.41763{col 43} 1467.58058{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2877{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  16{col 13} 816.39356{col 25}   5{col 31}   1.33077{col 43} 1453.77009{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3271{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  26{col 13} 322.00244{col 25}   6{col 31}   2.60478{col 43} 1436.03720{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3714{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  30{col 13} 221.94379{col 25}   7{col 31}   2.89067{col 43} 1438.74037{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3771{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  32{col 13} 184.26164{col 25}   8{col 31}   2.99989{col 43} 1443.57398{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3789{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  34{col 13} 152.97725{col 25}   9{col 31}   3.15148{col 43} 1448.46183{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3806{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  35{col 13} 139.38717{col 25}   8{col 31}   4.51168{col 43} 1439.27006{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3866{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    11{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  39{col 13}  96.07417{col 25}   9{col 31}   7.91951{col 43} 1437.91623{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3992{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    12{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  43{col 13}  66.22020{col 25}  10{col 31}  14.63370{col 43} 1432.84489{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4179{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
    13{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  44{col 13}  60.33738{col 25}  11{col 31}  17.03784{col 43} 1435.67496{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4229{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    14{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  52{col 13}  28.66514{col 25}  12{col 31}  33.98151{col 43} 1426.74081{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4471{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode.
{txt}Use {bf:long} option for full output.
{p 0 6 2}Type e.g. {stata lasso2, lic(ebic)}{txt} to run the model selected by EBIC.{txt}{p_end}

{com}.         lasso2, lic(ebic)
{txt}
Use lambda=.3295794879861628 (selected by EBIC).

{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 32}
{col 10}Selected {c |}           Lasso   Post-est OLS
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1653524      0.1646413
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -12.1934471    -12.2657329
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -13.7010292    -13.8563734
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3772490      0.3786156
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3868247      0.3897305
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 6}2.gov_party {c |}{col 21}{res}     17.8687812     17.9081325
{txt}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1936990      0.1942206
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 8}gov_party#{c |}
{space 15}c. {c |}
dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.3590354     -0.3598216
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2360140     -0.2369409
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 21}{res}    -18.1050556    -18.1788117
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 2}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3255105      0.3271077
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{col 4}Partialled-out{help lasso2##examples_partialling:*}{c |}
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}     42.6544440     42.7078431
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 32}

{com}.         
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan 

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(11, 334)      = {res}    25.56
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14425.2525        11  1311.38659   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17136.5975       334  51.3071781   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4570
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4392
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1629

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1646413{col 36}{space 2} .0624089{col 47}{space 1}    2.64{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0418772{col 77}{space 3} .2874054
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.26573{col 36}{space 2} 4.428173{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-20.97636{col 77}{space 3} -3.55511
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.85637{col 36}{space 2} 9.947494{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.42401{col 77}{space 3} 5.711263
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3786156{col 36}{space 2} .0856011{col 47}{space 1}    4.42{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2102303{col 77}{space 3} .5470008
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3897305{col 36}{space 2} .1851283{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0255661{col 77}{space 3} .7538949
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.90813{col 36}{space 2}  4.45002{col 47}{space 1}    4.02{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.154533{col 77}{space 3} 26.66173
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1942206{col 36}{space 2}  .070322{col 47}{space 1}    2.76{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0558907{col 77}{space 3} .3325505
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3598216{col 36}{space 2} .0888896{col 47}{space 1}   -4.05{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5346757{col 77}{space 3}-.1849676
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2369409{col 36}{space 2} .0852011{col 47}{space 1}   -2.78{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4045393{col 77}{space 3}-.0693424
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.17881{col 36}{space 2} 5.311509{col 47}{space 1}   -3.42{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.62704{col 77}{space 3}-7.730585
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3271077{col 36}{space 2}  .117081{col 47}{space 1}    2.79{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0967987{col 77}{space 3} .5574168
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.70784{col 36}{space 2} 7.166469{col 47}{space 1}    5.96{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.61074{col 77}{space 3} 56.80495
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. outreg2 using "appendix 3", noparen dec(3) label replace
{browse `"/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"' :dir} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "appendix 3.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. **Table A4**
. * Model with PHCI--Col 1
. lasso2 vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.phci
{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm        EBIC{col 58}R-sq   {c |} Action
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 15}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}3209.49941{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.00000{col 43} 1518.46549{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}2924.37633{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.01582{col 43} 1509.84107{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0423{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   4{col 13}2427.86860{col 25}   3{col 31}   0.06572{col 43} 1487.43015{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1199{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  11{col 13}1265.89270{col 25}   4{col 31}   0.29028{col 43} 1424.73765{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2831{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  16{col 13} 795.01751{col 25}   5{col 31}   1.45091{col 43} 1404.96620{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3360{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  26{col 13} 313.57129{col 25}   6{col 31}   2.68363{col 43} 1387.87929{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3800{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added L2.phci.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  28{col 13} 260.33239{col 25}   7{col 31}   2.83616{col 43} 1391.85030{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3834{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  31{col 13} 196.93191{col 25}   9{col 31}   3.02512{col 43} 1401.33145{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3873{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  35{col 13} 135.73753{col 25}   9{col 31}   4.47652{col 43} 1396.74657{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3957{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  40{col 13}  85.24712{col 25}  10{col 31}   8.90748{col 43} 1393.77990{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4113{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    11{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  43{col 13}  64.48632{col 25}  11{col 31}  13.80268{col 43} 1392.27339{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4241{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    12{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  44{col 13}  58.75753{col 25}  12{col 31}  16.99111{col 43} 1394.29666{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4306{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
    13{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  52{col 13}  27.91459{col 25}  13{col 31}  34.42155{col 43} 1385.15266{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4555{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode.
{txt}Use {bf:long} option for full output.
{p 0 6 2}Type e.g. {stata lasso2, lic(ebic)}{txt} to run the model selected by EBIC.{txt}{p_end}

{com}. lasso2, lic(ebic)
{txt}
Use lambda=.3209499409577966 (selected by EBIC).

{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 32}
{col 10}Selected {c |}           Lasso   Post-est OLS
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1723026      0.1715325
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -14.2725494    -14.3512852
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -13.6032174    -13.7609475
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.4144517      0.4159295
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3860865      0.3890345
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 6}2.gov_party {c |}{col 21}{res}     17.4640946     17.5020562
{txt}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1895112      0.1900201
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 8}gov_party#{c |}
{space 15}c. {c |}
dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.3541331     -0.3548928
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2128825     -0.2138730
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 21}{res}    -18.0157767    -18.0942654
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 2}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3220272      0.3237253
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 13}phci {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.0103858      0.0103789
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{col 4}Partialled-out{help lasso2##examples_partialling:*}{c |}
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}     40.5784785     40.6395778
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 32}

{com}. 
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.phci

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       334
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(12, 321)      = {res}    23.33
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14417.8357        12  1201.48631   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16529.6249       321  51.4941587   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4659
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4459
{txt}       Total {c |} {res} 30947.4606       333  92.9353173   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1759

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1715325{col 36}{space 2} .0664687{col 47}{space 1}    2.58{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4} .0407632{col 77}{space 3} .3023018
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-14.35129{col 36}{space 2}  4.68188{col 47}{space 1}   -3.07{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4}-23.56233{col 77}{space 3} -5.14024
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.76095{col 36}{space 2} 10.05247{col 47}{space 1}   -1.37{col 56}{space 3}0.172{col 64}{space 4}-33.53799{col 77}{space 3} 6.016093
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .4159295{col 36}{space 2} .0898902{col 47}{space 1}    4.63{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2390812{col 77}{space 3} .5927779
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3890345{col 36}{space 2} .1871125{col 47}{space 1}    2.08{col 56}{space 3}0.038{col 64}{space 4} .0209127{col 77}{space 3} .7571563
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.50206{col 36}{space 2} 4.632243{col 47}{space 1}    3.78{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 8.388667{col 77}{space 3} 26.61545
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1900201{col 36}{space 2} .0736042{col 47}{space 1}    2.58{col 56}{space 3}0.010{col 64}{space 4} .0452125{col 77}{space 3} .3348277
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3548928{col 36}{space 2} .0921847{col 47}{space 1}   -3.85{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5362552{col 77}{space 3}-.1735304
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.213873{col 36}{space 2} .0894362{col 47}{space 1}   -2.39{col 56}{space 3}0.017{col 64}{space 4}-.3898282{col 77}{space 3}-.0379179
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.09427{col 36}{space 2} 5.507727{col 47}{space 1}   -3.29{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.93007{col 77}{space 3}-7.258464
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3237253{col 36}{space 2} .1215709{col 47}{space 1}    2.66{col 56}{space 3}0.008{col 64}{space 4}  .084549{col 77}{space 3} .5629017
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 18}phci {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .0103789{col 36}{space 2} .0210305{col 47}{space 1}    0.49{col 56}{space 3}0.622{col 64}{space 4} -.030996{col 77}{space 3} .0517539
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 40.63958{col 36}{space 2} 7.736167{col 47}{space 1}    5.25{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 25.41958{col 77}{space 3} 55.85957
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. outreg2 using "appendix 4", noparen dec(3) label replace
{browse `"/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"' :dir} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "appendix 4.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. cv_regress
{txt}(6,699 missing values generated)
(6,699 missing values generated)


Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Results 
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 15}
         Method          {c |}{col 30} Value
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 15}
Root Mean Squared Errors {c |}{col 30}{res}    7.3359
{txt}Log Mean Squared Errors  {c |}{col 30}{res}    3.9856
{txt}Mean Absolute Errors     {c |}{col 30}{res}    5.5598
{txt}Pseudo-R2                {c |}{col 30}{res}   0.42039
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 15}

{com}. 
. * Model with Growth--Col 2
. lasso2 vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.growth
{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm        EBIC{col 58}R-sq   {c |} Action
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 15}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}3295.79488{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.00000{col 43} 1567.43634{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}3003.00555{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.01575{col 43} 1558.35745{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0422{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   4{col 13}2493.14796{col 25}   3{col 31}   0.05530{col 43} 1537.36912{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1137{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  12{col 13}1184.44727{col 25}   4{col 31}   0.41763{col 43} 1467.58058{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2877{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  16{col 13} 816.39356{col 25}   5{col 31}   1.33077{col 43} 1453.77009{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3271{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  26{col 13} 322.00244{col 25}   6{col 31}   2.60478{col 43} 1436.03720{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3714{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  30{col 13} 221.94379{col 25}   7{col 31}   2.89067{col 43} 1438.74037{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3771{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  32{col 13} 184.26164{col 25}   8{col 31}   2.99989{col 43} 1443.57398{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3789{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  34{col 13} 152.97725{col 25}   9{col 31}   3.15148{col 43} 1448.46183{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3806{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  35{col 13} 139.38717{col 25}   8{col 31}   4.51168{col 43} 1439.27006{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3866{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    11{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  39{col 13}  96.07417{col 25}   9{col 31}   7.91951{col 43} 1437.91623{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3992{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    12{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  43{col 13}  66.22020{col 25}  11{col 31}  14.86655{col 43} 1438.68987{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4179{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.growth.
    13{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  44{col 13}  60.33738{col 25}  12{col 31}  17.31610{col 43} 1441.52324{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4229{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    14{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  45{col 13}  54.97717{col 25}  11{col 31}  19.83922{col 43} 1432.50819{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4282{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed L2.growth.
    15{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  52{col 13}  28.66514{col 25}  12{col 31}  33.98151{col 43} 1426.74081{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4471{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode.
    16{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  62{col 13}  11.30612{col 25}  13{col 31}  52.50696{col 43} 1427.26741{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4555{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added L2.growth.
{txt}Use {bf:long} option for full output.
{p 0 6 2}Type e.g. {stata lasso2, lic(ebic)}{txt} to run the model selected by EBIC.{txt}{p_end}

{com}. lasso2, lic(ebic)
{txt}
Use lambda=12.40845615503433 (selected by EBIC).

{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 32}
{col 10}Selected {c |}           Lasso   Post-est OLS
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1914130      0.1646413
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -9.5442172    -12.2657329
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -8.0077623    -13.8563734
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3271668      0.3786156
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.2803282      0.3897305
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 6}2.gov_party {c |}{col 21}{res}     16.4265822     17.9081325
{txt}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1745848      0.1942206
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 8}gov_party#{c |}
{space 15}c. {c |}
dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.3302212     -0.3598216
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2020459     -0.2369409
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 21}{res}    -15.4019425    -18.1788117
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 2}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.2669739      0.3271077
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{col 4}Partialled-out{help lasso2##examples_partialling:*}{c |}
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}     40.6974032     42.7078431
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 32}

{com}. 
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.growth

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(12, 333)      = {res}    23.36
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14426.0052        12   1202.1671   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17135.8448       333  51.4589933   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4571
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4375
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1735

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  .163913{col 36}{space 2} .0627906{col 47}{space 1}    2.61{col 56}{space 3}0.009{col 64}{space 4} .0403967{col 77}{space 3} .2874293
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.30956{col 36}{space 2}   4.4495{col 47}{space 1}   -2.77{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-21.06223{col 77}{space 3}-3.556888
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.87533{col 36}{space 2} 9.963434{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.47454{col 77}{space 3} 5.723873
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3793967{col 36}{space 2} .0859707{col 47}{space 1}    4.41{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2102827{col 77}{space 3} .5485108
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3899877{col 36}{space 2} .1854142{col 47}{space 1}    2.10{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4}  .025257{col 77}{space 3} .7547185
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.87315{col 36}{space 2} 4.465975{col 47}{space 1}    4.00{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.088073{col 77}{space 3} 26.65823
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1935525{col 36}{space 2} .0706423{col 47}{space 1}    2.74{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}  .054591{col 77}{space 3} .3325139
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.359202{col 36}{space 2} .0891683{col 47}{space 1}   -4.03{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5346063{col 77}{space 3}-.1837977
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.237205{col 36}{space 2} .0853551{col 47}{space 1}   -2.78{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4051081{col 77}{space 3} -.069302
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.25267{col 36}{space 2}   5.3543{col 47}{space 1}   -3.41{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.78518{col 77}{space 3}-7.720153
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3287409{col 36}{space 2} .1180291{col 47}{space 1}    2.79{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0965643{col 77}{space 3} .5609175
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 16}growth {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 3.776073{col 36}{space 2} 31.22199{col 47}{space 1}    0.12{col 56}{space 3}0.904{col 64}{space 4}-57.64112{col 77}{space 3} 65.19327
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.71824{col 36}{space 2} 7.177579{col 47}{space 1}    5.95{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.59913{col 77}{space 3} 56.83736
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. outreg2 using "appendix 4", noparen dec(3) label append
{browse `"/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"' :dir} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "appendix 4.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. cv_regress
{txt}(6,687 missing values generated)
(6,687 missing values generated)


Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Results 
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 15}
         Method          {c |}{col 30} Value
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 15}
Root Mean Squared Errors {c |}{col 30}{res}    7.3305
{txt}Log Mean Squared Errors  {c |}{col 30}{res}    3.9841
{txt}Mean Absolute Errors     {c |}{col 30}{res}    5.6021
{txt}Pseudo-R2                {c |}{col 30}{res}   0.41210
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 15}

{com}. 
. * Model with Income--Col 3
. lasso2 vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.income
{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm        EBIC{col 58}R-sq   {c |} Action
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 15}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}3295.79488{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.00000{col 43} 1567.43634{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}3003.00555{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.01575{col 43} 1558.35745{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0422{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   4{col 13}2493.14796{col 25}   3{col 31}   0.05530{col 43} 1537.36912{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1137{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  12{col 13}1184.44727{col 25}   4{col 31}   0.41763{col 43} 1467.58058{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2877{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  16{col 13} 816.39356{col 25}   5{col 31}   1.33077{col 43} 1453.77009{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3271{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  26{col 13} 322.00244{col 25}   6{col 31}   2.60478{col 43} 1436.03720{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3714{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  28{col 13} 267.33208{col 25}   7{col 31}   2.77273{col 43} 1439.95214{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3749{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added L2.income.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  31{col 13} 202.22692{col 25}   8{col 31}   3.02161{col 43} 1443.54590{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3790{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  32{col 13} 184.26164{col 25}   9{col 31}   3.09031{col 43} 1448.83227{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3800{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  34{col 13} 152.97725{col 25}  10{col 31}   3.53636{col 43} 1452.96181{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3830{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
    11{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  35{col 13} 139.38717{col 25}   9{col 31}   4.51833{col 43} 1444.56142{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3876{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    12{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  39{col 13}  96.07417{col 25}  10{col 31}   8.46592{col 43} 1441.98024{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4023{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    13{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  43{col 13}  66.22020{col 25}  11{col 31}  15.46755{col 43} 1436.24262{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4220{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
    14{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  44{col 13}  60.33738{col 25}  12{col 31}  18.09160{col 43} 1438.77004{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4275{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    15{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  53{col 13}  26.11861{col 25}  13{col 31}  36.95822{col 43} 1428.44775{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4536{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode.
{txt}Use {bf:long} option for full output.
{p 0 6 2}Type e.g. {stata lasso2, lic(ebic)}{txt} to run the model selected by EBIC.{txt}{p_end}

{com}. lasso2, lic(ebic)
{txt}
Use lambda=.3295794879861628 (selected by EBIC).

{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 32}
{col 10}Selected {c |}           Lasso   Post-est OLS
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1703470      0.1696448
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -12.3362998    -12.4088386
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -12.4836023    -12.6367905
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3801433      0.3815149
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3674610      0.3703325
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 6}2.gov_party {c |}{col 21}{res}     18.7715912     18.8125413
{txt}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.2209697      0.2215395
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 8}gov_party#{c |}
{space 15}c. {c |}
dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.3773111     -0.3781297
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2325573     -0.2334781
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 21}{res}    -18.2487545    -18.3227651
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 2}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3256688      0.3272663
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 11}income {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.3302761     -0.3308610
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{col 4}Partialled-out{help lasso2##examples_partialling:*}{c |}
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}     42.2341790     42.2868338
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 32}

{com}. 
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.income

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(12, 333)      = {res}    23.83
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14582.3607        12  1215.19673   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16979.4893       333  50.9894574   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4620
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4426
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1407

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1696448{col 36}{space 2} .0622807{col 47}{space 1}    2.72{col 56}{space 3}0.007{col 64}{space 4} .0471316{col 77}{space 3} .2921579
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.40884{col 36}{space 2} 4.415193{col 47}{space 1}   -2.81{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}-21.09403{col 77}{space 3}-3.723652
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.63679{col 36}{space 2} 9.940956{col 47}{space 1}   -1.27{col 56}{space 3}0.205{col 64}{space 4}-32.19178{col 77}{space 3} 6.918198
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3815149{col 36}{space 2} .0853517{col 47}{space 1}    4.47{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2136185{col 77}{space 3} .5494113
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3703325{col 36}{space 2} .1848848{col 47}{space 1}    2.00{col 56}{space 3}0.046{col 64}{space 4} .0066432{col 77}{space 3} .7340218
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 18.81254{col 36}{space 2} 4.466041{col 47}{space 1}    4.21{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 10.02733{col 77}{space 3} 27.59775
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2215395{col 36}{space 2} .0718107{col 47}{space 1}    3.09{col 56}{space 3}0.002{col 64}{space 4} .0802796{col 77}{space 3} .3627994
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3781297{col 36}{space 2} .0892257{col 47}{space 1}   -4.24{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5536467{col 77}{space 3}-.2026127
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2334781{col 36}{space 2} .0849598{col 47}{space 1}   -2.75{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4}-.4006037{col 77}{space 3}-.0663524
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.32277{col 36}{space 2} 5.295673{col 47}{space 1}   -3.46{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.73995{col 77}{space 3}-7.905576
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3272663{col 36}{space 2} .1167179{col 47}{space 1}    2.80{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} .0976688{col 77}{space 3} .5568637
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 16}income {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} -.330861{col 36}{space 2} .1884892{col 47}{space 1}   -1.76{col 56}{space 3}0.080{col 64}{space 4}-.7016406{col 77}{space 3} .0399186
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 42.28683{col 36}{space 2}  7.14827{col 47}{space 1}    5.92{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.22538{col 77}{space 3} 56.34829
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. outreg2 using "appendix 4", noparen dec(3) label append
{browse `"/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"' :dir} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "appendix 4.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. cv_regress
{txt}(6,687 missing values generated)
(6,687 missing values generated)


Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Results 
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 15}
         Method          {c |}{col 30} Value
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 15}
Root Mean Squared Errors {c |}{col 30}{res}    7.2965
{txt}Log Mean Squared Errors  {c |}{col 30}{res}    3.9748
{txt}Mean Absolute Errors     {c |}{col 30}{res}    5.5733
{txt}Pseudo-R2                {c |}{col 30}{res}   0.41746
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 15}

{com}. 
. * Model with Unemployment (state and nationa)-- Col 4
. lasso2 vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.unemployment_state l2.unemployment_national
{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm        EBIC{col 58}R-sq   {c |} Action
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 15}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}3295.79488{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.00000{col 43} 1567.47878{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}3003.00555{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.01575{col 43} 1558.44233{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0422{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   4{col 13}2493.14796{col 25}   3{col 31}   0.05530{col 43} 1537.49644{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1137{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  12{col 13}1184.44727{col 25}   4{col 31}   0.41763{col 43} 1467.75034{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2877{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  16{col 13} 816.39356{col 25}   5{col 31}   1.33077{col 43} 1453.98229{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3271{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  25{col 13} 353.39728{col 25}   6{col 31}   2.52532{col 43} 1437.30854{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3695{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.unemployment_national.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  26{col 13} 322.00244{col 25}   7{col 31}   2.63870{col 43} 1441.91910{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3719{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  30{col 13} 221.94379{col 25}   8{col 31}   3.01325{col 43} 1444.12787{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3785{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  31{col 13} 202.22692{col 25}   9{col 31}   3.09205{col 43} 1449.31906{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3798{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  34{col 13} 152.97725{col 25}  10{col 31}   3.30893{col 43} 1453.54215{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3827{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
    11{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  35{col 13} 139.38717{col 25}   9{col 31}   4.60251{col 43} 1444.41965{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3885{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    12{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  39{col 13}  96.07417{col 25}  10{col 31}   8.11612{col 43} 1442.81851{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4016{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    13{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  43{col 13}  66.22020{col 25}  11{col 31}  15.00214{col 43} 1437.46824{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4207{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
    14{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  44{col 13}  60.33738{col 25}  12{col 31}  17.75748{col 43} 1439.91716{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4264{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    15{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  50{col 13}  34.52727{col 25}  13{col 31}  31.42275{col 43} 1432.80352{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4476{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.unemployment_state.
    16{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  53{col 13}  26.11861{col 25}  14{col 31}  37.25803{col 43} 1435.44430{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4528{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode.
{txt}Use {bf:long} option for full output.
{p 0 6 2}Type e.g. {stata lasso2, lic(ebic)}{txt} to run the model selected by EBIC.{txt}{p_end}

{com}. lasso2, lic(ebic)
{txt}
Use lambda=37.89363218516947 (selected by EBIC).

{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 32}
{col 10}Selected {c |}           Lasso   Post-est OLS
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.2354569      0.1873042
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -4.7093332    -11.4657158
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.2338810      0.3600682
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1282066      0.1367809
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 6}2.gov_party {c |}{col 21}{res}     13.1733484     17.8815523
{txt}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1339795      0.2019483
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 8}gov_party#{c |}
{space 15}c. {c |}
dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2690001     -0.3641040
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.1342403     -0.2361748
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 21}{res}    -10.1570225    -18.1154374
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 2}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1524364      0.3232828
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
unemployment_na~l {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2868507     -0.3593180
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{col 4}Partialled-out{help lasso2##examples_partialling:*}{c |}
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}     39.2045444     43.5138017
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 32}

{com}. 
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.unemployment_state l2.unemployment_national

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(13, 332)      = {res}    21.89
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14566.9512        13   1120.5347   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 16994.8989       332  51.1894544   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4615
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4405
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1547

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1694155{col 36}{space 2}  .063267{col 47}{space 1}    2.68{col 56}{space 3}0.008{col 64}{space 4} .0449607{col 77}{space 3} .2938702
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.94377{col 36}{space 2} 4.447085{col 47}{space 1}   -2.91{col 56}{space 3}0.004{col 64}{space 4}-21.69179{col 77}{space 3}-4.195753
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.30568{col 36}{space 2} 9.943157{col 47}{space 1}   -1.34{col 56}{space 3}0.182{col 64}{space 4}-32.86521{col 77}{space 3} 6.253854
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3893364{col 36}{space 2} .0859184{col 47}{space 1}    4.53{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2203233{col 77}{space 3} .5583494
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3798798{col 36}{space 2} .1850577{col 47}{space 1}    2.05{col 56}{space 3}0.041{col 64}{space 4} .0158463{col 77}{space 3} .7439133
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.79839{col 36}{space 2} 4.447967{col 47}{space 1}    4.00{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.048641{col 77}{space 3} 26.54815
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1985784{col 36}{space 2} .0703324{col 47}{space 1}    2.82{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}  .060225{col 77}{space 3} .3369318
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3627588{col 36}{space 2} .0888368{col 47}{space 1}   -4.08{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5375129{col 77}{space 3}-.1880047
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2452535{col 36}{space 2} .0854436{col 47}{space 1}   -2.87{col 56}{space 3}0.004{col 64}{space 4}-.4133327{col 77}{space 3}-.0771743
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.64184{col 36}{space 2} 5.312712{col 47}{space 1}   -3.51{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-29.09266{col 77}{space 3}-8.191017
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3375228{col 36}{space 2}  .117153{col 47}{space 1}    2.88{col 56}{space 3}0.004{col 64}{space 4}  .107067{col 77}{space 3} .5679787
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 4}unemployment_state {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .2242078{col 36}{space 2} .3140672{col 47}{space 1}    0.71{col 56}{space 3}0.476{col 64}{space 4}-.3936048{col 77}{space 3} .8420204
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 1}unemployment_national {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.5522772{col 36}{space 2} .3683349{col 47}{space 1}   -1.50{col 56}{space 3}0.135{col 64}{space 4}-1.276842{col 77}{space 3} .1722873
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 44.82798{col 36}{space 2} 7.362951{col 47}{space 1}    6.09{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 30.34406{col 77}{space 3}  59.3119
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. outreg2 using "appendix 4", noparen dec(3) label append
{browse `"/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"' :dir} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "appendix 4.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. cv_regress
{txt}(6,687 missing values generated)
(6,687 missing values generated)


Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Results 
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 15}
         Method          {c |}{col 30} Value
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 15}
Root Mean Squared Errors {c |}{col 30}{res}    7.3170
{txt}Log Mean Squared Errors  {c |}{col 30}{res}    3.9804
{txt}Mean Absolute Errors     {c |}{col 30}{res}    5.5951
{txt}Pseudo-R2                {c |}{col 30}{res}   0.41431
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 15}

{com}. 
. * Model with Relative Unemployment---Col 5
. lasso2 vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.unemployment_relative
{res}
{txt}  Knot{c |}  ID     Lambda    s      L1-Norm        EBIC{col 58}R-sq   {c |} Action
{hline 6}{c +}{hline 57}{c +}{hline 15}
{res}     1{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   1{col 13}3295.79488{col 25}   1{col 31}   0.00000{col 43} 1567.43634{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0000{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added _cons.
     2{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   2{col 13}3003.00555{col 25}   2{col 31}   0.01575{col 43} 1558.35745{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.0422{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     3{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}   4{col 13}2493.14796{col 25}   3{col 31}   0.05530{col 43} 1537.36912{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.1137{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed.
     4{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  12{col 13}1184.44727{col 25}   4{col 31}   0.41763{col 43} 1467.58058{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.2877{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan.
     5{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  16{col 13} 816.39356{col 25}   5{col 31}   1.33077{col 43} 1453.77009{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3271{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.Incumbcode#cL2.Approval_Smoothed.
     6{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  26{col 13} 322.00244{col 25}   6{col 31}   2.60478{col 43} 1436.03720{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3714{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.Approval_Smoothed_pres.
     7{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  30{col 13} 221.94379{col 25}   7{col 31}   2.89067{col 43} 1438.74037{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3771{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
     8{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  32{col 13} 184.26164{col 25}   8{col 31}   2.99989{col 43} 1443.57398{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3789{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}2.gov_party#c.dem_per_two_party.
     9{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  34{col 13} 152.97725{col 25}   9{col 31}   3.15148{col 43} 1448.46183{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3806{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.gov_party.
    10{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  35{col 13} 139.38717{col 25}   8{col 31}   4.51168{col 43} 1439.27006{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3866{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Removed
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    11{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  39{col 13}  96.07417{col 25}   9{col 31}   7.91951{col 43} 1437.91623{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.3992{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}dem_per_two_party.
    12{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  43{col 13}  66.22020{col 25}  11{col 31}  14.64815{col 43} 1438.66098{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4179{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}1.pres_copartisan#cL2.Approval_Smoothed_pres
{txt}{col 7}{c |}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}L2.unemployment_relative.
    13{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  44{col 13}  60.33738{col 25}  12{col 31}  17.12681{col 43} 1441.37537{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4232{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 1.Incumbcode.
    14{txt}{col 7}{c |}{res}  52{col 13}  28.66514{col 25}  13{col 31}  34.47618{col 43} 1431.93416{txt} {res}{col 56} 0.4481{txt}{col 65}{c |}{res}{col 67}Added 2.Incumbcode.
{txt}Use {bf:long} option for full output.
{p 0 6 2}Type e.g. {stata lasso2, lic(ebic)}{txt} to run the model selected by EBIC.{txt}{p_end}

{com}. lasso2, lic(ebic)
{txt}
Use lambda=.3295794879861628 (selected by EBIC).

{hline 18}{c TT}{hline 32}
{col 10}Selected {c |}           Lasso   Post-est OLS
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1744739      0.1738076
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -12.5461353    -12.6201545
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}    -13.6774867    -13.8327152
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 7}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3843412      0.3857426
{txt}{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3871625      0.3900700
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 6}2.gov_party {c |}{col 21}{res}     17.9505398     17.9902929
{txt}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.1967491      0.1972856
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 8}gov_party#{c |}
{space 15}c. {c |}
dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 15}2  {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.3616353     -0.3624343
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}     -0.2426512     -0.2436106
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 21}{res}    -18.2417511    -18.3161790
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
{space 2}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 13}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smooth~s {c |}
{space 15}1  {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.3307059      0.3323286
{txt}{space 17} {c |}
unemployment_re~e {c |}
{space 14}L2. {c |}{col 21}{res}      0.2749587      0.2763100
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{col 4}Partialled-out{help lasso2##examples_partialling:*}{c |}
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 32}
{space 17} {c |}
{space 12}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}     42.3860233     42.4381032
{txt}{hline 18}{c BT}{hline 32}

{com}. 
. reg vote_share l2.c.Approval_Smoothed##i.Incumbcode gov_party##c.dem_per_two_party ///
>     c.l2.Approval_Smoothed_pres##pres_copartisan l2.unemployment_relative

{txt}      Source {c |}       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   ={res}       346
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   F(12, 333)      = {res}    23.48
{txt}       Model {c |} {res} 14465.4314        12  1205.45261   {txt}Prob > F        ={res}    0.0000
{txt}    Residual {c |} {res} 17096.4186       333  51.3405965   {txt}R-squared       ={res}    0.4583
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 34}   Adj R-squared   ={res}    0.4388
{txt}       Total {c |} {res}   31561.85       345  91.4836232   {txt}Root MSE        =   {res} 7.1652

{txt}{hline 23}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}            vote_share{col 24}{c |} Coefficient{col 36}  Std. err.{col 48}      t{col 56}   P>|t|{col 64}     [95% con{col 77}f. interval]
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1738076{col 36}{space 2} .0632833{col 47}{space 1}    2.75{col 56}{space 3}0.006{col 64}{space 4} .0493222{col 77}{space 3}  .298293
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-12.62015{col 36}{space 2} 4.447696{col 47}{space 1}   -2.84{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}-21.36928{col 77}{space 3}-3.871032
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-13.83272{col 36}{space 2}  9.95077{col 47}{space 1}   -1.39{col 56}{space 3}0.165{col 64}{space 4}-33.40701{col 77}{space 3} 5.741577
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 12}Incumbcode#{c |}
{space 1}cL2.Approval_Smoothed {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3857426{col 36}{space 2} .0860072{col 47}{space 1}    4.49{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} .2165568{col 77}{space 3} .5549285
{txt}{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}   .39007{col 36}{space 2}  .185189{col 47}{space 1}    2.11{col 56}{space 3}0.036{col 64}{space 4} .0257823{col 77}{space 3} .7543577
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 11}2.gov_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} 17.99029{col 36}{space 2} 4.452438{col 47}{space 1}    4.04{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 9.231842{col 77}{space 3} 26.74874
{txt}{space 5}dem_per_two_party {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .1972856{col 36}{space 2} .0704302{col 47}{space 1}    2.80{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} .0587414{col 77}{space 3} .3358298
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 13}gov_party#{c |}
{space 3}c.dem_per_two_party {c |}
{space 20}2  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.3624343{col 36}{space 2} .0889676{col 47}{space 1}   -4.07{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4}-.5374437{col 77}{space 3} -.187425
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-.2436106{col 36}{space 2} .0855617{col 47}{space 1}   -2.85{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4}-.4119202{col 77}{space 3} -.075301
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 5}1.pres_copartisan {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}-18.31618{col 36}{space 2} 5.315507{col 47}{space 1}   -3.45{col 56}{space 3}0.001{col 64}{space 4}-28.77238{col 77}{space 3}-7.859974
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 7}pres_copartisan#{c |}
{space 18}cL2. {c |}
Approval_Smoothed_pres {c |}
{space 20}1  {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2} .3323286{col 36}{space 2} .1172677{col 47}{space 1}    2.83{col 56}{space 3}0.005{col 64}{space 4} .1016497{col 77}{space 3} .5630075
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 1}unemployment_relative {c |}
{space 19}L2. {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}   .27631{col 36}{space 2} .3123405{col 47}{space 1}    0.88{col 56}{space 3}0.377{col 64}{space 4}-.3380993{col 77}{space 3} .8907192
{txt}{space 22} {c |}
{space 17}_cons {c |}{col 24}{res}{space 2}  42.4381{col 36}{space 2} 7.175284{col 47}{space 1}    5.91{col 56}{space 3}0.000{col 64}{space 4} 28.32351{col 77}{space 3}  56.5527
{txt}{hline 23}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. outreg2 using "appendix 4", noparen dec(3) label append
{browse `"/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data"' :dir} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using "appendix 4.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. cv_regress
{txt}(6,687 missing values generated)
(6,687 missing values generated)


Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Results 
{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 15}
         Method          {c |}{col 30} Value
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 15}
Root Mean Squared Errors {c |}{col 30}{res}    7.3206
{txt}Log Mean Squared Errors  {c |}{col 30}{res}    3.9814
{txt}Mean Absolute Errors     {c |}{col 30}{res}    5.6035
{txt}Pseudo-R2                {c |}{col 30}{res}   0.41363
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 15}

{com}. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log off
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/gregorylove/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/forecasting governor elections 2024/final submission/final final/replication data/replication log.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}paused on:  {res}10 Dec 2024, 14:45:40
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}